Week 1 UpsetsSeptember 08, 2010 3:33 PM by GT Staff
by Evan Abrams of Coopers Pick, Special to GT
We are a day away from the start of the NFL season, and the only thing on my mind is upsets. With so many good teams going on the road in week one, upsets are going to be inevitable. Every year, week one brings an extreme amount of drama to the game because of how much we over value a few different teams in the league before we even see them play. In 2008, the Carolina Panthers went into
This season is absolutely no different; there are so many varying predictions with people putting out their NFL Picks each week but with matchups such as Lions and Bears, Raiders and Titans, Dolphins and Bills, Cardinals and Rams and Chargers and Chiefs, upsets are going to happen in week one… it is just being able to pick them out of the bunch. I think week one this year really gives the opportunity to cash in on some really lopsided lines.
The Lions last won a week one matchup in 2007, when they defeated the Raiders in
The last five meetings between the Titans and Raiders have been decided by 10 points or less, with the Titans leading the series 3-2. I strongly believe this line has been inflated due to the projected year of Chris Johnson. The Titans have lost a number of players on their defense and I really think this game will be much closer than people think it will be. Jason Campbell is just not going to make the type of mistakes
The Dolphins, Bills matchup for week one is an intriguing one because of the division matchup as well as the fight for avoiding the basement in the AFC East. Looking at the football odds, Miami is 7-1 ATS in their last eight matchups versus the AFC East and the Bills are 3-10 in their last 13 games at home; both of these statistics do not lend to an easy bet for the Bills, but I think the “other” New York team has a real legitimate shot to pull the upset here. The Bills have won 4 of their last 5 home matchups versus the Dolphins since 2005 and I think the bookmakers are over valuing the addition of Brandon Marshall by
The Cardinals have not lost to the Rams since 2006 [7-0], but they have also never been this depleted on the offensive side of the ball. In each one of their seven victories, the Cardinals have had the reassurance of quarterback Kurt Warner on their sideline, but this year is much different. With no Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin to help cushion the possible weaknesses in other aspects for the Cardinals, I think it is a distinct possibility the Rams will sneak up on Arizona in week one and pull off the upset in Sam Bradford’s first career start. Derek Anderson has thrown 13 touchdowns and 19 interceptions in the 10 games he has played on field turf in his career and has thrown 12 touchdowns and 14 interceptions in the month of September. These two statistics are a telling tale for the type of success you can project for Anderson and the Cardinals in the first quarter of the season and that is why I could see an upset brewing in week one.
With Vincent Jackson possibly holding out the entire season for the Chargers and Shawne Merriman questionable Monday night with an Achilles injury, I think this is the perfect opportunity for the Chiefs to pull the upset at home. Last season on Monday night football in week one, the Chargers were seconds away from being upset by the Raiders in Oakland before Darren Sproles bailed them out with a late touchdown. I think this will be the year the upset will be completed by the Chiefs at Arrowhead and there might be new leadership at the top of the AFC West. In my opinion the AFC West this year is really up for grabs, and
Top NFL Vegas betting trends | 49ers: Off a loss as a favorite: lost next game against the spread only 1 of 16 times; Have lost only 1 of last 11 road games ATS.
For the first time this season, weather could play a key role in games. The meetings between the Ravens and Browns seems most likely to get wet. This is something to keep an eye on if you doubt certain QBs can handle the elements.
Fantasy Football Fix | It was surreal watching marquee player after marquee player succumb to injury Sunday. But so is the nature of the NFL and fantasy football. Let's assess the damage and identify which targets we should be after heading into Week 3.
Florida State buckled to pressure and extended its suspension of Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston from a half to the entire game tonight against No. 22 Clemson.
Swish's Free Smart Play of the Day | Swish Analytics prides itself on a data-driven system, and unlike most handicappers, we try to give a detailed statistical breakdown of why and how picks are formulated.
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