A true UFC Supercard takes place this Saturday at T-Mobile Arena, with two championships on the line.
The UFC 209 main event features a rematch of arguably the best title fight from 2016, UFC Welterweight Champion Tyron Woodley and Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson. You might remember the controversial ending of this fight when UFC ring announcer Bruce Buffer read the correct scorecards of 48-47, 47-47, 47-47 but mistakenly read Woodley as the winner by majority decision. However two even score cards equals a majority draw.
The co-main event is for the Interim Lightweight Title, No. 1 ranked Khabib Nurmagodmedov (24-0) vs. No. 2 Tony Ferguson. Impressively Nurmagodmedov has never lost an MMA fight at any level and Ferguson hasn’t lost in almost five years.
USFantasy released six props for this event, Woodley vs. Thompson, Woodley vs. Thompson Fight Distance, Nurmagodmedov vs. Ferguson, Evans vs. Kelly, Vannata vs. Teymur and Overeem vs. Hunt.
Fights are broken down by betting on a fighter winning in each round, by decision or the fight ending in a draw. I will give you my quick breakdown of each fight as well as what I will be betting come Saturday.
Prop No. 1 Alistair Overeem vs. Mark Hunt: If you know me, you know how much of a Mark Hunt fan I am. Hunt comes into this fight with a huge chip on his shoulder, losing to Brock Lesnar via decision at UFC 200. Lesnar tested positive for enhancement drugs and the result was changed to a no contest. Hunt went as far as to sue the UFC because of this and it’s still pending in the courts.
My thoughts are this is the biggest fight of Hunt’s career and I just think he finds a way to crack Overeem and set himself up for a future title fight.
Bet: Hunt by KO1; and if the odds on KO1 are over 10-1 and so is Hunt by KO2, bet them both.
Prop No. 2 Lando Vannata vs. David Teymur: Vannata burst onto the UFC scene as a late replacement to fight Ferguson back in July. He was a Round 2 tapout victim but gave Ferguson all he could handle. He followed that up with a KO1 victory over John Makdessi in December. Teymur was a perfect 2-0 in 2016 and has a training background in Muay Thai.
Vannata is a better all-around fighter and will look to take it to the ground, where I think he finishes Teymur.
Bet: Vannata by KO2.
Prop No. 3 Rashad Evans vs. Daniel Kelly: Evans is one of the most popular UFC fighters ever but he is coming off two straight losses to guys he probably beats in his prime. Kelly has only one loss to Sam Alvey by a monster KO. Since then he has won three straight.
How much does Evans have left? I don’t think he has enough but I won’t be willing to back underdog Kelly without a price. Look for anything over 20-1 on Kelly and that’s worth the gamble.
Bet: Kelly KO1, KO2, KO3, DECISION if anything over 20-1.
Prop No. 4 Nurmagodmedov vs. Ferguson: Just like Hunt, Nurmagodmedov is one of my three favorite UFC fighters on Earth, Conor McGregor being the other. He has waited years for a title shot and now that this is for the interim title The Eagle isn’t losing to Ferguson. The beauty of this being a title fight is the winner gets a shot at McGregor, or they will be declared the new champion because of this win and Conor would be stripped.
Bet: Nurmagodmedov at any price over 5-1, KO1, KO2, KO3, KO4, DEC.
Prop No. 5 Woodley vs. Thompson/ Prop No. 6 Fight Distance
While I enjoy Thompson and actually hope he wins, Woodley to me won the first fight and he will use the draw as the fuel to win this fight. I think he stops Wonderboy this time.
Bet: Woodley by KO2, KO3.