Advice to open MLB season: Avoid Run Lines look toward 5 inning lines
March 13, 2018 3:03 AM
by Joe D'Amico
It’s just a little over two weeks until we have the earliest Opening Day in history and baseball is here.
The 2018 MLB campaign will start off with a bang on Thursday, March 29, as all 30 teams will be in action. It’s not just enough to get your best starting pitchers on the mound right away, it is imperative.
In a long, 162-game regular season, teams want to open up the year with a win. As of early in the week, only a few have listed pitchers for Opening Day, as per MLB.com. Below are the five “probable” starters with career stats:
In the Cubs/Marlins matchup, Jon Lester goes up against, Jose Urena. Lester owns a 159-92, 3.51 ERA, while Urena’s is 19-21, 4.71.
The Astros prognosticated pitcher is Justin Verlander with a lifetime record of 188-114, 3.46.
Perhaps the most exciting pitching match-up is in the Giants/Dodgers contest, where Madison Bumgarner, 104-76, 3.01 and Clayton Kershaw, 144-64, 2.36, each take the mound.
As I stated in earlier columns, personally, I would never lay above $1.40 when making a baseball play. Be selective. A few high-priced losses put a big hit on your bankroll and creates a situation that compels you to “chase” your money and go on a streak.
Baseball is a long season with games every day, so again, be disciplined.
This brings me to betting Run Lines, which can be quite profitable. Be careful for laying -1.5 runs can be as unforgiving as spotting an extra half-point in either football or baseball.
That brings us to playing a team for 5-1/2 innings. The popularity of this wager among “sharp” bettors has skyrocketed. The game has changed. A few decades ago, it was all about starting pitching. Then in the “live ball” era, it became about power hitting.
When betting on baseball, the current game has evolved into not just starting pitching, but middle relieving, and closers, along with a team’s ability to score runs in support of their pitchers.
Very simply, some teams have very strong starting pitching and solid lineups, but, let’s say, less-than-stellar bullpens. This is the spot where you bet that team for the first 5-1/2 innings. I know certain “wiseguys” here in the Vegas sportsbooks that only move on the 5-1/2 innings play.
There has been some movement in the Odds To Win the World Series. Here are the updated odds on the Top 10 teams, courtesy of our friends at the Orleans sportsbook:
Yankees 3-1; Dodgers 4-1; Astros 6-1; Cubs 6-1; Indians 7-1; Nationals 9-1; Giants 10-1;
Angels 12-1; Red Sox 12-1; Cardinals 20-1.
In a repeat of the 2016 World Series, the Cleveland Indians will be facing the Chicago Cubs over at Cashman Field for Big League Weekend on Saturday and Sunday. This has turned into one of the most popular and most enjoyable sporting events in Southern Nevada. There are still a few tickets left, so be sure to attend the final Big League Weekend at Cashman before it moves over to Las Vegas Ballpark in Summerlin next season.
Good luck, and have a winning day.