My advice: Bet sports
July 10, 2018 3:00 AM
by Bill Krackomberger
I live in a high-rise on the Strip. In that building, many of the residents are “trust fund kids” (as I like to call them, meaning young adults with $250K cars and no job), who also love to gamble.
One of them was recently invited to his first blackjack tournament, and knowing what I do for a living, asked me for advice. Usually these tournaments are free and invitations are only extended to a certain level of rated player.
I told him to Google blackjack tournament strategy. In addition, I said most of the people who get invited to these type of free-roll events do not understand or even use tournament strategy. Usually, the people are scared to death, and have little or no idea what they are doing. You get a few people who are very aggressive, trying to jump out to a lead. Then you may have someone else at your table like myself, who knows a thing or two.
I play these tournaments like I would play a single-table poker event. I’m slow and steady, hoping the built-in house edge or their stupidity breaks them early, leaving me with few decisions (or none at all) to make at the end of the round.
I also told him the importance of knowing where you are 3/4 of the way through the round. The reason for that is, depending on how many advance from your table, that is the time you will have to make your move. Further, positioning is a key factor. It is a big advantage if you get to make the last decision and can see everyone else’s wagers before making yours. I also gave him some fantastic advice for the final hand, which is something worthy of its own article.
What happened was, he listened and advanced in the first round. Then he was knocked out in the second round. He was very upset, and texted me: “Bill, I’m sticking with horses and roulette because this is too much pressure and I do not know how you’ve done it all these years.”
My response was: “Taking advantage of tournaments is just a small part of what I do. It’s all part of positive expected value and betting horses and roulette are big-time negative expected value.”
Then after thinking about that, I felt a little bad and texted him: “Different people get their enjoyment in life different ways… Many go shopping, take vacations or like myself, like to gamble. Treat it as a fun hobby, do not overbet your allotted gambling bankroll, and enjoy.”
In the end, thank the Lord for people like him. For if everyone was sharp or had an edge, guys like me could not make a living.
Looking back: We split our two dogs last week, breaking even. Now, as I look at Monday’s card, amazingly, all five American League games are 2-1 favorites, or better.
Yes, there are some good teams playing ones that are not inferior. However, I would not call them all bad.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, you may also find the same trend, and I look to a few dogs.
Oakland has been playing pretty good lately and will be getting a nice price vs. Houston. The same goes for Texas vs. Boston. Who says you cannot bet against the best two teams in baseball?
Well, probably the trust fund kid in the earlier part of my article. Lol.