Gators will cover and the total goes OV
September 12, 2018 3:00 AM
by Ian Cameron
For the rest of the college football season, “Inside The Lines” will focus in on college games, providing a betting preview of upcoming games that have piqued my personal interest.
Ball St. at Indiana -14 (57.5): This game has danger written all over it for the two TD Big Ten home favorite as the Indiana Hoosiers welcome their smaller in-state little brothers from the MAC Ball State to Bloomington.
Ball State battled Notre Dame in an extremely tough loss last weekend in South Bend. The Ball State defense was opportunistic, forcing Irish QB Brandon Wimbush into 3 INT’s. The return of a healthy Riley Neal at QB has certainly improved Ball State’s offense.
Indiana is 2-0 SU notching wins against FIU and Virginia but they proved to be an overvalued pointspread commodity in those contests going 0-2 ATS in the process. They had to hang on at the end vs. the Cavaliers, 20-16, and now face Ball State sandwiched in between that game and their Big Ten opener next Saturday at home against Michigan State.
Ball State is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings against Indiana and that includes a 10 point defeat to them last season. I’ve liked the performance of the stingy Ball State defense so far and Indiana’s offense, led by QB Peyton Ramsey, is still looking to find more traction. Ball State could put a scare into the Hoosiers. Ball State +14
Colorado St. at Florida -20 (55.5): It was nothing but ugly for the Florida offense last weekend in a very lethargic and porous performance on their home field in a 27-16 loss to the Kentucky Wildcats. The Florida defense was chewed up allowing over 300 yards rushing as the Gators simply couldn’t contain RB Benny Snell nor the running ability of QB Terry Wilson.
The other side of the ball was also a struggle for Florida as QB Feleipe Franks completed just 44 percent of his passes and the Gator ground attack was essentially grounded by Kentucky, allowing just 128 yards rushing.
I still think head coach Dan Mullen, in his first year with the Gators, will have this offense and QB Franks improving as the season goes along and I view this as a good “buy low” spot off last week’s loss.
Colorado State’s defense is horrific, allowing a staggering 550 total yards per game at a 7.7 yards per play clip. The Rams are coming off a thrilling come-from-behind win against the Arkansas Razorbacks but that team is in a state of chaos and disarray, and the defense was not much better for CSU. Colorado State’s offense is led by QB K.J. Carta-Samuels who was finally able to bring the Rams’ passing game to life in last week’s win with a terrific second-half performance, but it won’t be as easy for Colorado State to trade points for a full 60 minutes in this game. Florida -20 & OV 55.5
Boise St. at Oklahoma St. -3 (63.5): Oklahoma St. has two impressive blowout wins (Missouri St. and S. Alabama) but there are major warning signs from last week’s win against the Jaguars. Cowboys’ new starting QB Taylor Cornelius, who takes over from the graduated Mason Rudolph, had more INT’s than TD’s last week against South Alabama despite his strong completion rate; and they have faced two teams that have little to no defense.
This will be a complete 360 degree turn for Oklahoma State in terms of the class of defense they will be facing here with a Boise State squad that in two dominant wins against Troy and UConn have allowed a paltry 123 rushing yards on 3.6 yards per carry on the ground and just 163 yards through the air. The pass defense in particular is what matters here against what last week was a big time aerial show from Cornelius and the Okie State offense.
BSU QB Rypien has eye popping numbers after two games, completing 73.2 percent of his passes to go along with 7 TD’s and 0 INT’s. Boise should get two massive reinforcements with WR Octavius Evans and DT David Moa (one of their best players) expected to return from injury. Boise State is fully aware they need this win to strengthen their chances at being this year’s Central Florida for a shot at New Year’s Six bowl game. Boise State +3