NFL betting probably best left to the pros
September 19, 2018 3:11 AM
by Bill Krackomberger
A recent Gallup poll says the average American work week is now 47 hours. Therefore, on Sundays I understand you need a release, or a reason to just chill. What better way to relax than some outdoor grilling, some chips and salsa, a little fantasy football and a few harmless parlays.
I am here to tell you my friends, I understand, really I do. Just do not let yourself get caught up in the moment by putting a large price on your day of respite.
An old timer told me once, NFL stands for Not For Long will you have your bankroll if you mess with it too much. Do not let anyone kid you; this is single-handedly the hardest sport to beat. Just like the saying goes, on any given Sunday anything can and will happen. Around this time last year on Sunday, three double-digit NFL underdogs won outright. Two of them were 14-point dogs.
All you need to know is when I walk up to a counter in Las Vegas to place a bet in the NFL, they will give me basically whatever I want. In college football or college basketball, they are ready to call the police and say “stop that man he’s committing a robbery.” Well not really, but you get the point. They limit me to 1/5th or even 1/10th of what I am allowed to bet on the NFL.
Trust me, in the end, approximately 99 percent of you who bet NFL lose! This is business, not personal, so please do me (and yourself) a favor and take this into consideration. Do not let your bankroll wind up like McCluskey and Sollozzo. Ooohh, and if you have not seen the movie “The Godfather” then I don’t really know what to tell you.
I am hearing the sportsbooks have had a very, very good week here in Vegas as well as in New Jersey. I will stand by what I said in last week’s’ column: New Jersey can, and probably will eventually overtake Las Vegas as volume king. The only thing standing in their way is themselves. They need to figure out a way to handle all the volume and not shut out the customers from placing their bets.
Like I have said, this is virgin territory to an entire new genre of people. Over 50 percent of people that are in line to make a wager do not realize they have to use a rotation number and not just the team name. They have to be trained with signage, billboards or just the clerks explaining to them how to properly make a wager. Hopefully, by now the staff knows how to take a wager.
I was in Atlantic City during the first week, and I was having a very hard time with multiple ticket writers. They also need to have a person or phone line dedicated to assisting the public with help on the new apps. In time things will run smoother for sure.
Back to my reasoning as to why I think New Jersey will do so well. They draw the crowds from some of the biggest money areas in America. These areas not only grew up on ESPN, they have some of the largest fan bases across the country.
When people come to Vegas, they come here on vacation and over 50 percent of Las Vegas’ revenue is now non-gaming driven. When they go to Atlantic City, they are mostly day-trippers and a much more serious crowd, who are looking to make a score.
Speaking of making a score, here are a few plays for the weekend. By the way, these totals are now up at Caesars properties, which announced they will be the first in town to put up CFB totals on Tuesdays for the rest of the season.
My best: Marshall+6, Virginia Tech/ODU Over 51, Miss/Kent over 77.
Last week: 1-0