Let's hope the backdoor stays locked with Boston College
September 19, 2018 3:04 AM
by Joe D'Amico
So sports fans, again I am in my home away from home, a Vegas sportsbook, with my fellow crazies, fanatics, and scamps. By the way, what’s wrong with us, as the only place outside of my own living room that I feel perfectly at ease and at home, is a Vegas sportsbook.
There won’t be any “backdoor covers” with my Best Bets this week. (Lines are as of print and can change. If a line is around a hot number or moves against us, be smart.)
Take Boston College -6.5 over Purdue: HC Steve Addazio has certainly improved things up in New England. BC is off to a 3-0 start, both SU and ATS. Purdue is the epitome of the saying, “always a bridesmaid, never a bride,” as the team is doing just enough to save face, but just can’t seem to notch a win. Eagles RB AJ Dillon (432 YR, 4 TD’s) will keep the Boilermakers defense on their heels and allow QB Anthony Brown (68.8% CR, 9/0 TD/INT ratio) to exploit the 121st pass defense of Purdue that let Missouri put up 608 total yards last week. The BC stop-unit comes in here, once again, very strong. The Eagles are 6-0 ATS the L6 on the road.
Take Navy -7 over SMU: It confuses me that the Middies aren’t a double-digit. Navy has taken eight in a row in this series SU, going 7-1 ATS, and come in here sporting the qualities to extend their domination of the Mustangs. The Midshipmen will eat up a ton of clock with their No. 2 ranked ground attack and put points on the board. SMU QB Ben Hicks just doesn’t have the skills himself or the supporting cast to keep pace. The Mustangs are 1-4 ATS the L5 at home, 1-6 ATS the L7 Conference matchups, and 1-6 ATS the L7 overall. NAVY
Take UNLV +7.5 over Arkansas State: Tony Sanchez has our home town boys at 12-4 ATS as a road underdog since taking over as HC. So, getting 7.5 points here prompts me to side with our UNLV squad. Going into Jonesboro won’t phase them as they covered at Southern Cal this season, Fresno State, Air Force, and Ohio State, last season, UCLA two seasons ago, and Michigan three seasons ago. Arkansas State isn’t a bad team, but they are slow starters, going 3-8 ATS the L11 in the month of September and fall flat when facing non-Sun Belt opponents with a 3-11 ATS mark the L14 vs. non-Conference foes. UNLV
Take Louisiana Tech +20.5 over LSU: You might think I’m crazy here but listen up as I speak the “Cajun’ Truth.” For starters, in-state rivals tend to play each other tough. Next, can you say, “letdown.” LSU comes off of a huge, 22-21 win as a 10-point ‘dog over Auburn. Next, over the following six games they have to face Mississippi, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi State, Alabama, and Arkansas. Not only are they looking forward, the Tigers aren’t going to risk any key personnel. Louisiana State is also 0-4 ATS the L4 at home vs. non-SEC opponents. Lastly, the Bulldogs are money, going 9-3 ATS the L12 following an ATS win, 5-2 ATS the L7 on the road, and 7-2 ATS the L9 vs. the SEC. LA TECH
Wisconsin -3.5 over Iowa: Always err on the side of caution so buy this one down to -3 for the extra few cents. Wisconsin is going to come in here upset after losing to BYU last week, 24-21, as a 23.5-point favorite. That loss ended a 41-game overall win streak and 12 straight at home. Wisky is 11-1 ATS the L12 games played on the road, 4-1 ATS the L5 games played vs. Conference foes, and 8-3 ATS the L11 games played following an ATS loss. I would hate to face the Badgers here. WISCONSIN
Last week: 2-2