Sun Belt shootout predicted at Texas State

Sun Belt shootout predicted at Texas State

October 10, 2018 3:00 AM
by

Georgia Southern (-17) at Texas State (49.5): Texas State returned from its bye week and got carved up on defense by UL Lafayette in a 42-27 home loss. The Bobcats surrendered 557 total yards with 327 of those yards coming on the ground. That’s bad news for Texas State against the Georgia Southern triple option offense that they must prepare for on a short week. Georgia Southern is 4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS on the season as they have been an undervalued commodity and have made significant strides under head coach Chad Lunsford, including a very impressive win against Arkansas State one of the best teams in the Sun Belt. 

Texas State does seem to have found a QB to run head coach Everett Withers’ up-tempo attack in freshman Tyler Vitt who threw for three TD passes and nearly 300 yards in the loss to ULL a week ago. 

The total is moving on the wrong direction in my mind. It opened at 51 and has gone down to 49.5 which is a move I’ll look to buck in this game. OVER

Texas A&M (-2.5) at South Carolina (53.5): The Aggies have played some very good football in the first year of the Jimbo Fisher era. They are 4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS in six games and the two losses came against the last two national champions – Alabama and Clemson – in games which they covered the number in defeat. 

QB Kellen Mond has proven to be an improved signal-caller this season with nine TD’s in six games. The ground attack, led by Trayveon Williams, has been explosive and they have multiple playmakers at WR. On defense, the Aggies are allowing 323 yards per game and have completely shut down the run, giving up only 78 rushing yards per game on three yards per carry. Considering that includes games against Alabama, Kentucky and Clemson, I would say that is very impressive. 

South Carolina slipped out of Columbia, Missouri with a 37-35 win last week against the Tigers and the QB change to Michael Scarnecchia with Jake Bentley out of action due to a knee injury proved to spark the Gamecocks’ mediocre offense in the win. He threw for 249 yards and three TDs in the win However, the Gamecocks were still outgained by over 100 yards in the contest which tells me where was some luck involved. 

This will be a massive step up in defensive class for him and the South Carolina offense against Texas A&M. They were 0-2 SU and ATS suffering double-digit losses to Kentucky and Georgia. I believe A&M is the superior squad here and I’ll back them laying less than a FG on the road. TEXAS A&M

Michigan State (+13.5) at Penn State (54): The Nittany Lions will get their first shot at redemption following their tough 27-26 loss to Ohio State two weeks ago in Happy Valley in that Big Ten showdown clash as they enter off a bye week here to face the Spartans. 

Ordinarily, this would be a tough spot for a squad after such a heartbreaking loss in a big game. But the bye should soften the blow for Penn State and I expect them to be recharged and refocused for the Spartans. Michigan State’s season has been filled with turmoil and the Spartans took a massive setback in a 29-19 home loss to Northwestern last week, losing outright as double-digit favorites. The Spartans are suffering from a ton of injuries and the situation appears to be getting worse, not better for them on that front.  This is a walking wounded football team entering a very tough environment against a good football team and the Spartans have proven to be an overvalued commodity at 1-4 ATS in five games this season. 

Michigan State beat Penn State 27-24 last season in East Lansing, making this a revenge spot for Penn State, which trounced Michigan State 45-12 in the Spartans last visit to Happy Valley in 2016. I think Penn State has the potential to roll to a convincing win here and I’ll spot the near two TD’s with them at home. PENN STATE

Last week: 1-2

Season: 8-6-1