Euros on turf winning Breeder Cup formula
October 10, 2018 3:00 AM
by Jon Lindo
Since the turn of the century, the Breeders’ Cup has been held at Churchill Downs in Louisville Kentucky four times, and in each case the featured turf race, the Breeders’ Cup Turf, has been won by a European invader.
Kalanisi (IRE) won the race in 2000. Red Rocks (IRE) pulled a major upset in 2006. Dangerous Midge got the job done in in 2010, and St. Nicholas Abbey (IRE) won the race for trainer Aiden O’Brien in 2011.
Look for that trend to continue in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf. And this year it might be a filly who will shine vs. the boys.
Enable won the 2017 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe as a 3-year-old when the race was held at Chantilly. The John Gosden-trained miss injured a leg in the spring of this year, so she was unable to make her 2018 debut until September 8 at Kempton in Great Britain where she won the September Stakes over a synthetic track “under wraps.”
Enable reportedly had a minor illness after that comeback win, which compromised her training for this year’s Arc at Longchamp, but she was very game holding off top class 3-year-old filly Sea of Class to become just the eighth horse to win back-to-back Arcs.
Gosden has plenty of experience training horses in the U.S., and he is among the very best when shipping horses from Europe for major U.S. races. Enable can handle any type of turf condition, too, which is a huge plus given the ever-changing weather conditions in Kentucky in early November.
When you consider she likely needed her winning Arc race and the record of her connections in the Breeders’ Cup, Enable could be a horseplayer’s key in building the rolling wagers that will offer plenty of value November 3, especially with the connections of Sea of Class announcing this week they will bypass the Breeders’ Cup to target a 2019 campaign.
Rainbow Six Proving Popular at Santa Anita
The Pick Six as we have known it in So Cal has gone through many changes recently, from the traditional $2 Pick Six, a $2 Pick Six with a jackpot carryover, and, starting with this Santa Anita meet, a 20-cent minimum Rainbow Six similar to the concept that has been used at Gulfstream Park for a few years now.
The current Rainbow Six format calls for 70 percent of the pool (after takeout) to be distributed among the tickets with the most winners each day, with the remaining 30 percent to carry over until there is a single winning Pick Six ticket. A single winning ticket will take home the handle for that day in addition to the carryover pool.
It appears that the change agrees with the horseplayers. After weekday Pick Six pools regularly dropped below $100,000 in handle, the Rainbow Six has shown a decided handle increase as the table shows:
It is true that the handle has been helped by Santa Anita guaranteeing single ticket payoffs from $250,000 up to $1 million, but those guarantees have in turn helped build the carryover pool much faster than would have been possible otherwise. There was one ticket alive to a $1 million payday on Sunday and two tickets alive on Monday (one of those horses on Monday – Weather Market – finished second beaten less than a length for all the money), so the wager appears to be doing what it was designed to do. The Rainbow Six jackpot carryover into this Friday at Santa Anita is $364,450.
The ultimate payoff will be if nobody is able to take down the jackpot throughout the meet and the pool carries over to the mandatory payout on closing day Sunday November 4. There could be plenty of fireworks the day after the Breeders Cup World Championships.
‘Win and You’re In’ at Keeneland
It isn’t often an important Breeders Cup “Win and You’re In” race is conducted on a Wednesday, but that is the case this week as Keeneland’s Grade II Jessamine Stakes lured a field of 16 (14 will be allowed to run).
In a wide open contest, Zalia (No. 2) at 15/1 on the program looked very good winning her career debut over the tricky Kentucky Downs course on Sept 13 and those Kentucky Downs shippers have done OK at Keeneland.
Moravia (No. 9) and My Gal Betty (No. 13) are already Graded Stakes placed routing on turf, while Fierce Scarlett (No. 10), Speedy Solution (No. 3), and Princess Carolina (No. 7) could impact the exotic wagers. It makes for an excellent reason to head to the book on Wednesday.
Lindo Report Play for Gaming Today: Santa Anita Friday Race 4 – Amuse (No. 9). No less than seven of the nine entrants in this race exit the same event at Del Mar back on September 1. That appeared to be a slow race for the level, so let’s toss that group out and look for Amuse, who is working fast for her first try on dirt, to take advantage of her outside post and weak rivals.