Want to win at Breeders’? Do the prep
October 24, 2018 3:00 AM
by Dave Valento
I used to believe in the “study long, study wrong” mentality. There is some truth to this. But not as it relates to the Breeders’ Cup. There is just too much information to digest to wait until race day.
The best thing you can do now is get the pre-entries and familiarize yourself with the horses who are considered for each race. Don’t get married to anyone now. Instead, look for trouble lines, breeding information, trainer angles and identify the key races.
It’s fine to have “leans” but leave room to change your mind. Agile thinking is important this time of the year. Keys to early preparation for Breeders’ Cup weekend:
• Study the past performances
• Identify likely pace scenarios
• Look for troubled trips in recent prep races
• Search for trainer commentary in the last few weeks
• Keep track of the latest workouts.
Do as much as you can this week so you’re ready when the official entries and post-position draw comes out on Monday.
Options on Enable
One of the all-time great turf horses will be in Kentucky for the Breeders’ Cup Turf. The two-time Arc de Triomphe winner, Enable, will be odds-on to complete the Arc/BC Turf Daily Double. She was not fully cranked up for trainer John Gosden two weeks ago but still held off Sea of Class to win the prestigious Arc. Her condition will not be in question in the BC Turf.
How you approach her in multi-race wagers will be critical. Those who single her will have more ammunition to spread in other races and will be looking for the differentiator in more contentious spots.
Those looking to beat her will have significant separation if they have the winner on their ticket and it isn’t her.
There have been 62 horses who ran in both the Arc de Triomphe and Breeders’ Cup Turf in the same year. An Arc entrant has been in 31 of the 34 BC Turf races run and they won 11 of them (31-percent). There have been seven Arc winners in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. And while all were defeated, none were worse than fifth.
Play of the week
The play of the week comes in race 7 at Hawthorne on Wednesday. This is an optional claiming race at 6-furlongs on the dirt. The race is full of early speed and looks like it could be ripe for a come-from-behinder.
No. 8, Bulldog of Bergen is possibly the deepest closer in the field. He is coming off a huge third-place finish at 15-1.
He missed the break but was absolutely motoring in the lane, making up nearly seven lengths on the field in the final furlong. He is 12-1 on the morning line.