Be aware of trends for Breeder's Cup races
October 31, 2018 3:00 AM
by Dave Valento
The Breeders’ Cup starts on Friday with a new format. They will run all five Breeders’ Cup Juvenile races on Friday and leave Saturday to the older divisions.
The two Juvenile dirt races are part of the original seven run at Hollywood Park in 1984. The Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies have been contested 34 times and there are interesting trends to consider as you try to handicap the Friday portion of this year’s Breeders’ Cup
• The average win odds were 3-1 in the first 15 years. Favorites won eight times and only four winners went off over 5-2 during that period.
• The average win odds have jumped to 11-1 in the 19 years, starting in 1999. There have been just three winning favorites during that span yet four won at 28-1 or higher.
• Three prep races that have produced the most winners – The Champagne at Belmont (nine), Front Runner at Santa Anita (seven) and the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland (six).
• The winner was in the exacta in their last prep race in 29 of the 34 years and has never come into the Juvenile with a finish worse than fourth. Nearly half had won both of their previous two starts.
• East Coast-based runners have won 17 times while those from the West Coast have won 13. Europeans won the other four.
• In the last 19 years, eight winners went off at double-digit odds (four were West Coast-based).
• In the last 14 years, seven winners broke their maiden in one of their last two starts. The trend in recent years has been towards more lightly raced two-year olds.
• Since the Daily Racing Form started tracking Beyer speed figures (1992) the colt with the top Beyer has won seven times (27 percent) but four came in the first seven years. That percentage is actually 15 percent since 1999.
• The four best Beyers earned leading into the Juvenile were Came Home 108 (2001), Daredevil 107 (2014), Forest Camp 106 (1999), Roman Ruler 106 (2004). They finished seventh, seventh, sixth and fifth, respectively.
• The favorite has won the Juvenile Fillies a record 18 times (53 percent). No other Breeders’ Cup race has a higher winning percentage by favorites. However, there have been nine winners of this race that went off at 12-1 or higher (four of the last five years produced 17-1 or higher winning odds).
• The Frizette held at Belmont Park has produced the winner of the Juvenile Fillies 11 times. The Chandelier at Santa Anita is second most with seven. The Alcibiades has produced six winners.
• From 1985 to 2012, every winner had been on the board in their previous start. 20 of the 28 winners during that span had won their previous start.
• Six of the eight editions run at Churchill Downs were won by fillies based on the East Coast. Only Pleasant Stage (1991) and Silverbulletday (1998) were West Coast-based winners.