Quality still matters late in college football season
November 07, 2018 3:01 AM
by Joe D'Amico
With the college football regular season coming around the home stretch, there’s a few things I would like you all to keep in mind when handicapping this time of year.
Look out for teams that seem to be a certain good bet that may have a big, conference matchup the following game. This is what we call in the business, a “look ahead” situation.
Next, be informed on which teams are bowl eligible, which are still in the hunt, and which are out of the bowl race. Finally, whether you are laying points or taking points, always stay with a quality team worthy of laying or taking that point spread.
Last week was another winning week here at Gaming Today. Here are this week’s selections
Clemson (-18) at Boston College: Yes, I know Boston College is on an 18-7-1 ATS run. But, with a big win here, Clemson further solidifies its No. 2 ranking. Not only that, but the Tigers put more of a buffer between themselves and the rest of the ACC Atlantic. The Eagles won’t have the same success offensively, facing the 4th-ranked stop-unit in the nation (13.3 PPG allowed). Clemson is 4-0 ATS the last four games vs. conference opponents, 4-1 ATS the last four games played on the road, and 4-0 ATS the last four games played in the month of November. CLEMSON
Northwestern (+10) at Iowa: I don’t think that Iowa has the offense to lay double digits here, particularly against an underrated and undervalued Northwestern team that still has a good chance at the Big Ten West title. The Wildcats have won and covered the last two years in this matchup, each by seven points, and own a remarkable 20-5-1 ATS mark their last 26 games played in the conference. NORTHWESTERN
Auburn (+14.5) at Georgia: This is strictly a numbers play for me. Getting 14.5 points here is key. Georgia has the SEC East locked up, along with a spot in the title game in Atlanta. So, I must take the points with an Auburn team still hungry to win, coming off two consecutive wins and covers. The Tigers are 6-1 ATS the last seven in the month of November. Be sure to get that hook here. AUBURN
South Carolina (+7) at Florida: Last year’s meeting saw South Carolina’s Jake Bentley throw three INTs, and the Gamecocks still prevailed, 28-20. Well, the QB is making better decisions. Now, it’s the Gators with QB issues, as they benched their starter, Feleipe Franks, in last week’s 38-17 loss to Missouri. South Carolina gets us paid when playing visitor, riding a 7-1-1 ATS run on the road. SOUTH CAROLINA
Louisiana State (-13) at Arkansas: In what just might be the biggest mismatch of the day, laying under two TDs with LSU here is money. The Tigers come into this matchup an angry bunch after two firsts occurred in last week’s 29-0 loss to Alabama. First, LSU was shutout for the first time since November of 2016. Second, their defense gave up the most points since September of 2017. You can expect the Tigers offense to steamroll the 101st racked defense of Arkansas while the Tigers 11th-ranked “D” wreaks havoc on the mistake-prone Razorbacks QB Ty Storey. LSU is 10-2 ATS the last 12 conference games, 4-1 ATS the last five road games, 5-1 ATS the last six November games, and 11-5 ATS the last 16 overall. LSU
Ohio State (-3.5) at Michigan State: As of press time, there were mostly 3.5’s around on this game. Buy it down, for the extra few cents, just to err on the side of caution. However, my power ratings have Ohio State at least a seven-point favorite. The Buckeyes have not covered in their last five outings. But this is their opportunity to widen the pad over the Spartans and keep pressure on the Wolverines in the Big Ten East title race. Michigan State might be good against the run, but their defense is horrible against the pass. Urban Meyer is an excellent strategist and whether you like him or not, the head coach wins in big games. OHIO STATE
Last week: 4-5