Crimson Tide leaves no doubt who's king
November 07, 2018 3:00 AM
by Ian Cameron
If there was any doubt that Alabama is the hands-down heavy favorite to emerge with yet another national championship in college football this season, they might have put an end to any doubters’ beliefs last week with a thorough and convincing 29-0 shutout victory on the road in Baton Rouge against the LSU Tigers.
Alabama outgained LSU by a total of 380 yards and were +4 yards per play better than the Tigers in that win. It was dominance on both sides of the football and we are seeing it being reflected in the current look ahead numbers in Las Vegas for the possible national championship matchups.
If the title game took place today, Alabama would be -8.5 against Clemson, -14 against Michigan and -20.5 against Notre Dame. Alabama against Oklahoma in a possible national title game would likely fall in the north of two-TD favorite range for the Crimson Tide as well.
There is no current scenario with Alabama in the national title game that would have them be favored by a TD or less which is the perfect illustration of the kind of runaway freight train that Nick Saban’s squad appears to be right now.
Fresh off a perfect 3-0 sweep in this column last week with my college football betting recommendations, it’s once again time to look at some of the games that provide solid betting opportunities this week:
Fresno State (-3) at Boise State: Boise State is a home underdog on the blue turf for the first time since 2001 as they get set to host Fresno State in a key Mountain West battle. I agree with them being underdogs here though as I flat out believe Fresno State is a better team right now.
The Bulldogs are on a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS streak heading into this clash as the renaissance for this program under head coach Jeff Tedford has been impressive. Fresno is a ridiculous 20-3 ATS in two seasons under Tedford.
Boise State possesses a good offense with senior QB Brett Rypien but have suffered some key injuries on defense and it has shown in recent weeks. The Broncos have allowed 27+ points in three of their last four games.
Fresno is looking to avenge a very tough 17-14 loss to Boise State in last year’s MWC title game and I think this time around they are the better squad and will show their superiority here. FRESNO STATE
Northwestern (+10) at Iowa: The stats don’t lie. The underdog is now a perfect 8-0-1 ATS in Northwestern football games this season after last week’s push against Notre Dame.
That is a trend worth riding here on the Wildcats catching 10 at Iowa. The Hawkeyes are off back-to-back losses against Penn State and Purdue and their defense has taken a step backward. Northwestern has found a ground game thanks to RB Isaiah Bowser who has stepped up in the absence of Jeremy Larkin to give more balance to the Wildcats offense and help out QB Clayton Thorson who now doesn’t have to carry the load for this team offensively through the air. NORTHWESTERN
Kentucky (-6) at Tennessee: Kentucky’s 34-17 home loss to Georgia last week knocked them out of the SEC East title conversation. Despite this being a solid turnaround season for the Wildcats at 7-2, this is a dubious spot for them following that game and now going on the road to take on the Volunteers. Tennessee is not a good team and the program has a long way to go, but the Vols are showing a high level of competitiveness and fight in recent weeks. Tennessee is 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS in their last five games and of the three losses, two came to Georgia and Alabama, the two teams who will likely meet in the SEC Championship game. The other was a three-point loss to South Carolina.They also have a road win as big road underdogs at Auburn during that span.
Kentucky is a one-dimensional offense lacking a downfield passing game. Now they hit the highway after a very big game for them against Georgia. I get the sense that Kentucky may get tripped up here and I think the competitive home dog is worth taking in this spot. TENNESSEE
Last week: 3-0