MLB Over/Under Bet: Capitalizing on a Peculiar Line
April 14, 2019 8:23 AM
by Matt Zylbert
Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals
First pitch: 10:35 a.m. PT
Probable pitchers: Jameson Taillon (0-2, 3.00 ERA) vs. Max Scherzer (1-2, 3.32 ERA)
Simply put, there’s no reason this game should be as high as 8. Just none. It’s a complete disservice to what Taillon has accomplished in establishing himself as the ace of the Pirates’ pitching staff.
First of all, there have been far inferior starters in recent years than the former No. 2 overall draft pick to have squared off with Scherzer in D.C., yet it resulted in the over/under settling in at 7.5, 7 or even 6.5.
Taillon is a legit stud who can keep up with anybody. Of course, the 27-year-old finally enjoyed his long-awaited breakout campaign a season ago, going 14-10 with a 3.20 ERA. If you know me, you know I’ve loved Taillon since even before he made his major league debut, so I can assure you what he did in 2018 was just the beginning of his peak. Taillon is unquestionably going to be an All-Star more than once in his career.
He’s out to a nice start this season, sporting a 3.00 ERA through his first three starts. Although Taillon allowed six runs in his most recent outing, they were all unearned thanks to the horrid defense of Kevin Newman (who isn’t in the lineup today). Expect the right-hander to get back on track against opposing hitters whom he’s handled well. Washington’s starting batting order is collectively hitting .185 (5-for-27) against Taillon.
And then of course there is the former multiple-time Cy Young award winner, Scherzer, who we just need to churn out one of his usual outings with the total where it’s at. There’s a good chance of that happening given his history with the Buccos.
Scherzer has had plenty of success against Pittsburgh — including a no-hitter (which should have been a perfect game) — giving up two runs or fewer in all but one of his five starts opposite the Pirates since joining the Nationals four years ago. Play: UNDER 8 (-120)
Yesterday’s Result: Tigers-Twins Under 8.5 (WIN)
Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 8-9, -2.25 units
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 uni
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