MLB Over/Under Bet: Will Fillmyer, Santana Get Hit Again?
April 15, 2019 8:54 AM
by Matt Zylbert
Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox
First pitch: 5:10 p.m. PT
Probable pitchers: Heath Fillmyer (0-0, 15.00 ERA) vs. Ervin Santana (0-1, 17.18 ERA)
In their respective season debuts last week, things did not go well for both Fillmyer and Santana, the starters for tonight’s series opener between the Royals and White Sox.
Fillmyer, Kansas City’s second-year righty, was roughed up for five runs in three innings against the Mariners, allowing six hits and a pair of walks. The much more well-traveled Santana — now in his 15th season — got pounded by the Rays, as he was tattooed for seven runs in 3.2 innings. He also gave up three homers.
For Santana, that’s not a very promising beginning to his first year with the White Sox. He didn’t look good in his five starts in 2018 for the Twins, either, posting an 8.03 ERA. With a significant decrease in his average velocity in recent years, it appears this is closer to the new norm for the veteran right-hander.
Meanwhile, Fillmyer was actually decent for a bad Royals team a season ago, providing a modest 4.26 ERA in 17 games (13 starts) during his rookie campaign. At the same time, he managed just a 57-32 K/BB ratio in 82.1 innings, and that’s a good indicator of Fillmyer’s mediocre-at-best ceiling.
The bottom line is that at least one of these hurlers figures to get hit again. There’s certainly enough offense here for that to happen, with the Pale Hose boasting one of the more underrated lineups in the league. And the Royals are hitting better than anticipated.
For this bet, you’re going to want to wait to see if there’s any action regarding a potential line movement. Based on the allotment of the juice, there’s a chance it can drop to 9. Even if it does not, I’ll still have an Over 9.5 wager. Play: OVER 9/9.5
Yesterday’s Result: Pirates-Nationals Under 8 (WIN)
Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 9-9, -1.25 units
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit
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