Beware of double-digit favorites when betting Eagles, Bengals
October 28, 2017 9:42 AM
by Bob Christ
Beware of double-digit favorites. Two weeks ago, three heavy choices went 0-3 ATS and lost twice outright. So, heads up when it comes time to consider the Eagles at home with the 49ers and the Bengals at home vs. the Colts.
San Francisco 49ers (0-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-1)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line: Eagles by 12.5 (45.5)
Facts: The Eagles will be without nine-time Pro Bowl OLT Jason Peters for the rest of the season... In San Francisco’s last visit to Philadelphia, in 2011, the 49ers overcame a 20-point deficit to prevail 24-23 as a 9.5-point dog... The Eagles have won five in a row since their Week 2 loss at Kansas City, the longest current streak in the league... In Philly’s 34-24 win over visiting Washington last week, the Eagles were called for four penalties on their first three snaps. They had five infractions the rest of the game... San Fran, 2-0 ATS as a double-digit dog this year, will be catching the Eagles on short rest. Teams off MNF games have gone 5-8 ATS vs. teams on normal rest this year.
Analysis: This will be the 49ers’ third game back East in 2017 and this time they’ll be playing with a rookie QB, C.J. Beathard, who’s making his first start away from home. Last week he and his teammates fell to Dallas 40-10, with S.F. getting a cosmetic TD late. He was sacked five times and lost two fumbles. Bad and bad. It’s conceivable the Eagles could be caught flat during the middle of a three-game homestand and hearing how great they are, but that’s unlikely with QB Carson Wentz’s work ethic. And then there’s this: The Eagles have the league’s best conversion percentage on third downs at 50.5. Conveniently, the 49ers are worst defensively, allowing a 49.5 percent conversion rate.
Forecast: Eagles 31, 49ers 12