Keno progressives are eventually worth playing
November 08, 2016 3:10 AM
by Pesach Kremen
Knowing frequencies in keno is important, especially if you like progressives. They are usually listed as odds in keno books but for reference I shall put them here for you; these are for SOLID hits (hitting all your numbers).
|10 out of 10||8,911,710 to 1|
|9 out of 9||1,380,687 to 1|
|8 out of 8||239,114 to 1|
|7 out of 7||40,978 to 1|
|6 out of 6||7,752 to 1|
|5 out of 5||1,550 to 1|
|4 out of 4||325 to 1|
The above will cover the odds of a SOLID hit on Mega10/MegaKeno, the Atlantis More to the Meter progressive, and the Station Casinos Jumbo Progressive.
We also notice that with each added spot the odds of hitting the next higher number of spots is about 5 to 6 times as hard as the lower number of spots to hit.
Of course more information is needed to figure out if a progressive is at a high enough level to make it worth playing as you also have smaller hits that affect the return to the player. In fact, overall, the smaller hits, due their greater frequency, are more of the payout when considered in totality due their higher frequency.
For example, the odds of hitting 4 out of 5 are 82-1, meaning on average you will hit 4 out of 5 seventeen times for every time you hit a 5 out of 5. This does NOT mean if you hit 4 out 5 sixteen times and another 82 plays have gone by that you are “due” to hit it again next game. This is a terrible fallacy as what has happened before has no bearing whatsover on what is likely to happen in the future. This is similar to saying, if red has come up 10 times in a row on roulette that black has a higher chance on the next spin than red. NONSENSE! In Las Vegas the odds are still 18/38 for the next roll being red or black; each is equally likely.
With the above knowledge and using all frequencies in a cycle (average number of games to hit your ticket SOLID) times their respective payout you can calculate the return at that point of the progressive. For the specifics use a good keno book. If you want the specifics or see a book and wonder if it is good for this purpose please email me (address at the bottom of this column).
Usually after playing a while you can tell if the progressive is high enough to consider it worth playing. Let’s use the Atlantis progressives as an example. As of this writing the 4-spot is at $1,430, 5-spot at $2,038, 6-spot $3,687, 7-spot $16,548, 8-spot $208,384 and 9-spot $1,169,967.
Without doing the math it is obvious the 8 and 9 spots appear high as the 8-spot is nearly 13 times the 7-spot and the 9 is almost six times higher than the 8-spot, thus we may have something here.
You also need to take into consideration the price of the ticket.The 5-spot ticket costs $2, thus the $2,038 is really getting $1.019 per dollar. Since 4 out of 5 pays $2.50 and this will happen about 17 times per cycle it is like adding another $43 to the $2,038 giving you $2,075 average return, and you will be spending 1,551 times $2 or $3,102 per cycle.
A return of about 67% is thus indicated. However, if you analyze the 9-spot you find a return of close to 100%, thus if you are in Reno, what are you waiting for? Go and play! Where else in the keno world can you get over a million dollars for hitting 9 out of 9? Someone will put in the right ticket at the right time at The Atlantis, it might as well be you!
How can you find out more, ask the casino to have Keno Classessimilar to their blackjack or craps classes.
By the way, do not be discouraged if your favorite number of spots progressive is low, it will rise to your desired level at times. Meanwhile look at the kneo pay book and I am sure you can find some other tickets well worth your wager.
A reminder, since this column is coming out on election day, if you have not voted get out and vote. You can put in your keno tickets, go to the polls, and return to see what you have won. Best of luck!