Winning with ties

Apr 6, 2010 7:09 AM

Betting the baccarat tie can pay off

Last week we discussed the opportunities that frequently arise in getting on a winning streak in baccarat. That is, when the opportunities are there, exploit them.

It didn’t matter whether you’re playing the "bank" or "player." Streaks can occur on either side, and you should look for opportunities to find them, whether or not you’re betting progressively, as we suggested.

We didn’t discuss the "tie" bet because it’s a unique opportunity that deserves more attention.

Quite frankly, tie-bets can be some of the most profitable opportunities in the game. However, the onslaught of negative articles about tie-bets continues, with some authors actually calling it among "the worst bets in the casino."

The argument against it usually cites a house edge of 14.12 percent. This is often times the entire description of why the tie-bet in Baccarat can be one of the worst casino bets.

But keep in mind that this is simply mathematical using an infinite number of trials. The fact is we take our shot at the casino over very short periods of time, and anything can happen. There can be many occasions when a tie-bet is actually a very good bet; with an 8 to 1 payoff, it offers a huge advantage for the skilled player.

Based on computer models, the average Baccarat Shoe contains 80 hands, including seven (7) ties. Players do not have to make a bet on every hand. Using a Hit’em and Run method, one can wait-out any difficult sequences.

Of the 80 hands, there will be 20 to 30 very good opportunities, and several will be associated with tie patterns, particularly for Shoes that contain more than the average number of ties (TIE-RICH Shoes contain an average of 11 ties).

Tie decisions repeat and often with only a few non-tie decisions between them. These repetitive tie outcomes offer excellent profit opportunities. Would you make a few tie bets when there is a better than a 50/50 chance for a repeat within the next five decisions? The statistics based on math models don’t lie.

Nine ties, only two more ties than the average number of seven, would produce a small win even when making the same tie-bet on every hand of the Shoe. Astute players have played many Shoes that have as many as 12 or even 15 ties; they are always huge winners. However, skilled players play the game by making selective tie-bets. They bet tie only when the conditions are right for tie repeats.

How does one know if a given Shoe will contain these repetitive tie opportunities? Answer: you won’t. But, potential opportunities are always there.

These opportunities come in the form of various streaks and patterns so common in baccarat, and it is these frequent opportunities that provide an advantage for the skillful player.

You can apply three basic strategies for selective tie wagering: pattern repetitive ties, bunched ties and tie repeats. Let’s first review each of these strategies, or bet selection methods, so they can be statistically related to the additional opportunities in tie-rich shoes.

Pattern repetitive ties are tie decisions that repeat within a certain number of decisions. In some cases, the number of decisions between ties is quite small. In others, there can be many decisions between ties. The key is that the number of decisions between ties repeats one or more times.

For example, a tie decision occurs, the next tie outcome is six decisions later, and the next tie occurs another six decisions later; there are five decisions between each of these ties. These are pattern repetitive ties. Sometimes the number of decisions between them is not exactly the same, but usually very close; still by my bet selection methods (I will have a bet down) a repetitive pattern tie.

Shoes that have 10 or more ties nearly always have pattern repetitive ties and always have ties that repeat within a relatively few decisions. I refer to these as bunched ties; ties that repeat again and again very quickly.

Tie repeats are simply consecutive ties; two in a row, three in a row, etc. Surprisingly these can occur relatively frequently, even up to five in a row. Tie repeats are also very common in tie-rich shoes, consecutive tie outcomes occur in nearly every tie-rich shoe. Bunched ties are very common in tie-rich shoes.

Remember, you can bet as little as a dollar on ties as long as you have a minimum bet on player or bank at the same time. If you play your baccarat shoes using the same strategies and bet selection methods, you will automatically be wagering on these pattern tie opportunities.

As a result, no one else at the table will be playing and winning ties like you. The other players will think you are just lucky, but we know otherwise!