Matt Zylbert's Saturday's MLB Over/Under Bet

Mar 30, 2019 9:39 AM

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies 

Bryse Wilson (1-0, 6.43 ERA) vs. Nick Pivetta (7-14, 4.77 ERA) 

First pitch: 1:05 p.m. PT 

TV: FS1 

Over/Under: 9 

While the second game of this season-opening series may look like on paper that it will yield runs like the first did, think again. 

Pivetta is a name you'll see scouring lists of potential National League breakout candidates for 2019. Embarking on his third year in the big leagues, the 26-year-old has flashed notable ability before and may put it all together this season in blossoming as a competent, consistent starter. 

He'll be in a fine position to get his campaign started out right considering the spot he's in for his first assignment. Since first coming up, Pivetta has proven to be far more effective during the daytime (9-9, 3.83 ERA, 1 HR/9) than at night (6-15, 6.19 ERA, 1.76 HR/9).  Furthermore, he's also more than a full run better at home (4.75 ERA) compared to on the road (5.97). 

The right-hander has had success taking on Atlanta, too. Thus far into his career, Pivetta is 4-1 with a 2.72 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in eight starts against the Braves. That's the lowest ERA he's registered out of any opponent he's faced more than twice. 

His counterpart, meanwhile, will be making just his second major league start -- but there's a reason why Wilson is in this position, getting the nod in the reigning NL East champs' second game. 

The 2016 fourth-round draft pick was excellent in the minor leagues last year, logging a 3.44 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 125.2 total innings.  Most impressive of all, though was his 143-36 K/BB ratio. 

Wilson was solid in his one start in the majors a year ago when he blanked the Pirates across five innings in late-August. After a solid showing in spring training, I believe under bettors can trust him here to help lead this game under its total. LOSS   UNDER 9 

2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 0-2, -2.35 units 

Yesterday's Result: Cardinals-Brewers Under 8.5, Flaherty vs. Peralta (loss) 

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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Results
2019 MLB (0-1-0) Overall Record: 0-3-0