Top 5 MLB and NBA ‘Over-Valued’ ‘Under-Valued’ Teams

May 11, 2011 9:40 AM

(EDITOR’S NOTE: GamingToday’s newest contributor Vegas Runner has a feature on his website (http://pregame.com) called Value Top 10 that has picked up a ton on views. Here is his latest installment.)

Top 5 MLB and NBA "Over-Valued" Teams in the betting market:

Last week we uncovered some value from the list as both the Braves and Indians went on to win 7 of their last 10 games after being labeled "under-valued" in MLB.

In the NBA playoffs, the "under-valued" Mavs swept the Lakers and the Hawks (7-3 ATS) are holding their own against the Bulls.

The "over-valued" Celtics are down 3-1 against the Heat, while the Thunder and Grizzlies are deadlocked 2-2.

In MLB, the "over-valued" Cubs continue to lose money for their backers. The Red Sox went 3-3, but burned bettors as a heavy favorite in all 6.

This value list helps me identify how the market is assesses each team. I urge ALL sports bettors and handicappers to create their own list or use this one as a foundation.

"5" Most "Over-Valued"

1) MIAMI HEAT...Covered 3 of 4 vs Boston and more importantly, bettors backed them in Games 3 & 4 and got the money...Recreational Bettors love offense and they’ve gone Over in 3 of 4 in this series and 5 of 7. With 3 "stars" and plenty of media coverage, oddsmakers will have to put an even bigger premium on Miami going forward.

2) TEXAS RANGERS...After making bettors a lot of money early, now at .500. Lost 7 of 10 games and now only +7 in "Run Differential" after hovering in the +30’s. The public continues to back them and oddsmakers still charging a premium. A $100 bettor is now DOWN money backing them.

3) NY YANKEES...Though first in the AL East and sporting a "Run Differential" of +38, they’ve only made a $100 bettor a little over $200 in profit. I believe we’ll see the books adjust more as the NBA Season winds down, forcing the Yanks to win 2 of 3 to turn a profit.

4) LA DODGERS...Continue to cost backers money. $100 bettors down almost $600 backing them on money line. A -35 "Run Differential should only get worse. Simple reason: Public keeps betting on them. So books install them as "over-valued" (favored in 8 of L/10) and costing backers money.

5) MINNESOTA TWINS...Yes, even 10 games out of first in the AL Central, bettors refuse to quit on Twins despite a -64 "Run Differential" and losing almost 7 of 10 games they play...I see no real reason to look for spots to back them. The end result is only profitable for bookmakers.

"5" Most "Under-Valued"

1) DALLAS MAVERICKS...Rather than receiving any credit for how well they’ve been playing, we instead hear that the Lakers lost because of their "off the court" drama. Dallas is a very good team/company. And in any market, that almost always leads to profits.

2) PITTSBURGH PIRATES...Books couldn’t be happier that they are above .500 and currently third most profitable team on ML in MLB. Public "auto-faded" Pirates like they did with great success in years past. With public backing the other side on a nightly basis, we’ll keep getting Bucs at a discount.

3) KANSAS CITY ROYALS...Won 6 of 10 and a +13 "Run Differential" on the season...If KC can improve on the road, they’ll continue to compete for the division. Wiseguys continue to find profitable positions to back KC .I see no reason oddsmakers won’t keep offering them up at a discounted price.

4) COLORADO ROCKIES...Only team in NL West with a positive "Run Differential." Although they’ve only turned a modest profit for bettors on the ML, we have yet to see their true potential...Despite a very strong Home Field Edge, they’re only 8-6 at Coors...Should improve significantly. Plenty of profit.

5) ATLANTA HAWKS...Made their backers a profit in the postseason. Get it done with defense and that usually keeps them in the game and leaves the back-door wide open. With the Bulls not being very "over-valued", the Hawks are 2-2 ATS. I they advance will be extremely under-valued in the next round.

We’re taking a pass on NHL until we have a definite matchup in the Western Conference Finals and a price the oddsmakers send out.