Suspense, drama can factor into spreads but see what it looks like from both sides
November 14, 2017 3:00 AM
by Bill Krackomberger
Sports betting will always remain popular. The suspense, once you have action on the game, usually keeps the average Joe watching the game to the end. And the climatic drama you can experience watching these games is more thrilling than watching a movie.
I can’t remember how long it has been now since I have seen a new great movie. Frankly, there are not that many standouts made anymore. Usually, we get bored halfway through the film or we begin to dislike it. Also, we may already know how the ending will play out.
Watching that thrilling Astros-Dodgers World Series game with a 13-12 finish was such an outstanding event. The back and forth lead swings are something most people will remember for a long time. This brings me to my point. The back and forth type of game is very normal in everyday sports betting.
The bookmaker makes up a line that is intended to be the best number for two-way action. And as we all know that line is getting better and better every season. Therefore, it keeps you more involved with the game as a bettor-turned-viewer from start to finish, because you have a chance to cover your side.
Amazingly, most people who bet on sports always think their team should have won regardless how realistic that take is. They only look at the game from their side. For example, team A plays team B. Team A bettors are watching the offensive display of bad passes and dropped balls that should of lead to points. Team B bettors are looking at the defensive missed tackles and mistakes.
Both are using excuses for why they should have won and that makes them go back for more to bet repeatedly week after week. Frankly, I need those same sports bettors to continue betting to think they have a chance. I need their losing money and volume in the pools in order to take out my small piece without it hurting the books.
I’ll propose an exercise to help you understand this inherent bias once you’ve placed a bet on a game you’re watching on TV. This is a very hard task for you to do, however, I hope you try at least. Find the line on the spread for one of the TV college football games during the week. Write down the underdog and the line, then the favorite and the line. Watch that game intently, starting with the opening kickoff, as if you have a wager on both sides (the underdog and favorite).
Try to root for one side at a time. Don’t be passive. Knowing the result doesn’t matter because you have action on both sides. Pretend you need the favorite to cover, and in a separate state, pretend you also need the underdog to cover. If you do this correctly, you will see exactly what I mean by inherent bias.
Learn from this exercise. Most people have egos and would rather be right, not rich. Focus on what would make you rich, even if it means admitting you were wrong and taking the most important next step: learning from it. I love learning new things and methods. If I find something that works that someone else is using I will be glad to piggyback and also give them the credit for it.
Use the internet and follow the sharp lines the originating sportsbooks put out. Follow those lines during the week, especially ones close to kickoff. In my opinion, they are the most important.
Here’s another tip to try, one that will give a lot more free time and probably allow you to live a longer, healthier life. Here in Las Vegas, we have books like CG, Westgate and South Point. When these three sharp books are all taking a position on a game, as compared to other books in town with slower moving lines, look to bet with CG, Westgate and South Point.
If an underdog at those three books has moved from +7 down to +6 close to kickoff, but the slower books in town are still at +7, just bet +7 at the slower moving books. Don’t worry that you didn’t handicap the game yourself, and in fact, don’t even watch the game. That will save you stress and give you more free time to handicap your own games. But try that strategy and see if you end up making a few bucks.
It’s not the fast way to get rich, but it could produce a small profit for you in the long run.
Top play: Duke +7
Last week: 1-1