One performance can change a lot, just ask Tom Brady. From being overwhelmingly expected to hold his fourth MVP trophy to losing his lead as NFL MVP betting favorite. DraftKings had lifted Tom Brady’s status as MVP betting favorite after he had held that title for several weeks.
“We close betting on MVP during games especially this late in the year. When the Buccaneers game (Sunday’s 9-0 loss to the Saints) ended, we reopened MVP betting with Aaron Rodgers +125 as the clear favorite after opening the day around +500,” Johnny Avello, Director of Race and Sportsbook Operations at DraftKings, told Gaming Today.
Citing data that influenced the decision, Avello said, “The gap between touchdowns isn’t that big (30 for Rodgers vs. 36 for Brady), and Rodgers’ average per completion is much higher.” Per ESPN Stats and Info, Aaron Rodgers is sixth in the NFL in yards per completion at 7.8 ,whereas Brady is 15th with 7.2. (The betting market having a position that this stat is meaningful for MVP is noteworthy for future seasons.)
Also impacting Brady’s MVP chances, three of his key weapons — Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Leonard Fournette — all went down with injuries Sunday night. Godwin is out for the year with a torn ACL, while Evans and Fournette are both expected to miss time with groin issues.
Avello went on to say, “Quarterbacks can dink and dunk, but Aaron Rodgers is an incredible pure passer, playing hurt with a bad foot, and can still doing anything. His last two years likely trump anything that Mahomes has done. Could the Buccaneers win 10 games without Brady? Probably, there’s a lot of talent around him. The dropoff between (Packers backup Jordan) Love and Rodgers is drastic.”
If you got to other sportsbooks quickly, you had a chance to jump on Rodgers for MVP betting — and in hindsight — get some excellent value. Thanks to info provided by BetMGM‘s John Ewing, Brady was still a considerable favorite at the sportsbook after the Buccaneers’ SNF dud against the Saints.
Aaron Rodgers Moves On BetMGM NFL Oddsboard
- Brady -150
- Rodgers +550
After Saints vs. Buccaneers Game:
- Brady -120
- Rodgers +250
- Brady +150
- Rodgers +150
Since Sunday through Monday night, 40% of MVP bet tickets and 81% of the handle were on Rodgers to win the award, Ewing said in an email to Gaming Today.
He also tweeted this during the SNF game. BetMGM allows betting during games in many cases, unlike DraftKings.
Rodgers +250 https://t.co/30DiAClciK
— John Ewing 🦁 (@johnewing) December 20, 2021
NFL MVP race at @BetMGM
▪️ Brady -150
▪️ Rodgers +550
▪️ Brady -140
▪️ Rodgers +375
— John Ewing 🦁 (@johnewing) December 20, 2021
Shopping Around NFL MVP Odds
The injuries sustained to the Buccaneers’ offense ( are not helping this debate. This has made PointsBet move Tom Brady to +210 after being the clear favorite for weeks.
|Aaron Rodgers +125||Aaron Rodgers +160||Aaron Rodgers +150||Aaron Rodgers +110|
|Tom Brady +175||Tom Brady +160||Tom Brady +150||Tom Brady +210|
|Jonathan Taylor +750||Jonathan Taylor +1000||Jonathan Taylor +1000||Jonathan Taylor +500 👀|
|Matthew Stafford +1200||Patrick Mahomes +1000||Patrick Mahomes +1200||Matthew Stafford +1200|
NFL MVP Prop: Brady/Rodgers vs. The Field
PointsBet Sportsbook is a dealing a ‘Brady/Rodgers vs. the Field’ prop. Can’t imagine a running back winning it? Or how about a wide receiver? You’re not alone in that thought (even though Jonathan Taylor is getting some buzz, and Cooper Kupp’s name suddenly sprung into the conversation). A bet on either Brady or Rodgers winning the award is the overwhelming favorite in this prop, listed at -325, with the field the +250 underdog.
As noted by the eye-roll emoji in the above chart, PointsBet’s +500 price on Taylor winning the NFL MVP are by far the shortest of any sportsbook.
DraftKings’ Avello said of the Colts running back, “Taylor has had a phenomenal year. Usually, this is a quarterback award, but if he gets to 2,000 yards rushing and 5.5 yards per carry, it would put him up there. His path to victory would be, Aaron Rodgers getting to eight to 10 interceptions (currently at four) and doesn’t throw many touchdowns the rest of the way. Brady would need to really struggle to the end of the year, too. The top quarterbacks have been too good this year.
“Aaron Rodgers has a quarterback rating over 110 (110.4, best among all starters), and Brady’s has really dropped (down to 100.4,” Avello continued. “If a running back were to win it, there would need to be a serious drop from Rodgers there.”
As for Kupp, while his stats are remarkable, a wide receiver has never been named NFL MVP. Kupp is offered at +4000 at PointsBet and +5000 on FanDuel after his nine-catch, 136-yard, two-touchdown performance in the Rams’ 20-10 win over the Seahawks on Tuesday.