This week’s PGA Tour stop, the Wells Fargo Championship, will prove to be quite the dilemma for bettors.
This will be the 19th year the event has been held at Quail Hollow Golf Club in Charlotte, N.C., and, sadly for bettors, it’s the only consistent part of the tournament.
We’ve had first-time winners like the defending champ, Max Homa, in 2019. There were more first-time winners like Derek Ernst back in 2013 and, gasp…believe it or not…Rickie Fowler in 2012.
We’ve had players win here for the second time in their careers, like J.B. Holmes in 2014, James Hahn in 2016, and Brian Harman in 2017.
We’ve also had established stars show up and walk away with the hardware like Rory McIlroy in 2015 and Jason Day in 2018.
So you can see the problem with looking at patterns when it comes to picking a winner. There just aren’t any.
But, that’s why we’re here. To dive a little deeper.
Hang on, it’s going to be quite the ride.
Odds To Win The Wells Fargo Championship From BetMGM
|Odds To Win The Wells Fargo Championship||BetMGM|
The Defending Champ This Week? Nope, Sorry
We can look at picks from a wide variety of viewpoints. Who’s hot coming in? Who’s played consistently in this event? Who just might come out of nowhere and win come Sunday?
So many questions, so few answers.
But, we will try.
Remember, it’s been two years since Homa, +4000 this week, won that first title. In the time since that victory, he’s found his way back into the winner’s circle. In fact, he won the Genesis Invitational this calendar year.
But since that win, it’s middle of the pack or worse. He’s got just three T-20 or better finishes in six events along with a couple of MCs. He was solid last week at the Valspar, but a final-round three-over-par 74 dropped him to T-6. It’s a solid showing, but we’re going to pass on him repeating as champion.
Add in the fact that no returning champion has defended in this event and we’re going to look elsewhere.
Plenty Of Firepower In The Field
With Homa off our radar, we can scan the BetMGM numbers and see there is a wealth of talent to pique our interest. Now it’s just a matter of fitting in the player, the odds and the fact the next major is just two weeks away.
The big questions are who’s gunning for that next PGA title and who is looking down the road at the PGA Championship?
Now stay with us for a moment. We’re going to write a sentence that is going to make no sense whatsoever. But bear with us. There’s a method to our madness…we promise (well, we hope). It’s a sentence that may not be written anywhere else.
Here goes nothing: Fowler, at +6600 at BetMGM, could win this week.
There, we said it. Whew…that feels so much better now that we have that off our chest.
Sure, Fowler’s been struggling. Big-time. But there’s nothing like a little familiarity to snap a person out of a slump.
Fowler was T-4 here when Homa won two years ago. He’s also coming off his best finish in a long time, a T-17 at the Valero Texas Open. That finish came after an opening-round 76 that could have crushed a struggling golfer’s spirit. But Fowler rallied over the next three rounds to the solid finish.
Add in the fact he’s just received a special invitation to the PGA Championship in a couple of weeks and that takes some of the pressure off him to qualify for that event.
Finally, remember, he won his first PGA Tour event here. It’s time to get the Fowler train back on the tracks.
Take A Hard Look at Justin Thomas
Don’t overlook a favorite in Justin Thomas at +1100. It’s not great money, but then again this is the world’s No.2-ranked player. The lower odds are going to reflect that point.
Thomas has a flair for the dramatic. He won the Players Championship in March but a T-21 at the Masters can’t have set well with him.
He had a decent week last week, finishing at T-13, despite seeing about a million putts graze just past the hole. It’s time for him to bounce back and a win leading up to the PGA Championship would be the perfect fit. He was T-11 here two years ago.
Keep An Eye On Cameron Tringale
Like Sam Burns before last week at Valspar, Cameron Tringale is searching for that elusive first PGA Tour win.
Tringale, +4000 this week, won the team title at the Franklin Templeton event in 2015 with Jason Day, but it’s not the same. Not even close.
He has three top 15s in his last four events including a T-3 behind Burns at the Valspar. If he keeps knocking at the door, one of these week’s it’s got to open.