The scoreboard operator at the Georgia Dome is expected to be busy at Sunday’s NFC title clash between the Packers and Falcons. Both offenses should be primed to light up the scoreboard as evidenced by the fact this game is currently lined at 60/60.5 at every major offshore and Las Vegas sportsbook.
Aaron Rodgers continued his elite level play in Sunday’s thrilling 34-31 win over Dallas. He completed 28-of-43 passes for 356 yards and now has a spectacular 21-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio during the Packers’ current 8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS surge.
The absence of Jordy Nelson was negated by “step up” efforts from Davante Adams, Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison (each with three or more catches). Tight end Jared Cook also hauled in six passes, including the all-important one that set up the game-winning field goal. But Green Bay’s defense was exposed, especially in the secondary, where injuries remain plentiful.
Dallas rolled up 429 total yards including 302 through the air. That doesn’t bode well for their matchup against Matt Ryan and an Atlanta offense that posted some of the league’s best offensive numbers. Note that the Falcons ranked tops in the league in yards per pass attempt at 8.8.
To make matters worse, the Packers lost another member of that depleted secondary when safety Morgan Burnett left the game in the first quarter with a quad injury. His status for Sunday’s game is currently questionable. With all the focus on Rogers, Ryan and two prolific offenses, it’s clear whoever comes up with a timely turnover or red zone stop is going to have a significant edge.
How about that 9-0 O/U record at the Georgia Dome this season? The average total during that span was 51. The highest total during that span was 58.5 (vs. New Orleans). And when these two teams met in the Georgia Dome back in Week 8, the closing total was 51! Of course, that game went flying over as Atlanta won, 33-32.
Amazingly, this is only the second time since 2005 the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots will square off in the postseason. New England’s strength of schedule this season was a well-documented league low. And not only did the Patriots routinely face weak teams but also weak quarterbacks – the two generally go hand in hand.
New England went up against Carson Palmer, Ryan Tannehill, Brock Osweiler, Tyrod Taylor, Cody Kessler, Charlie Whitehurst, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jared Goff, Joe Flacco, Trevor Siemian, Bryce Petty and Matt Moore.
The “best” quarterback New England has faced was Seattle’s Russell Wilson, who finished the season with the league’s 14th-best QB Rating. And it should be noted Wilson carved up the Pats for 348 yards, 3 TDs, and no interceptions. Ben Roethlisberger finished 11th with a 95.4 QB Rating but didn’t play (hence Landry Jones) in New England’s 27-16 Week 7 win over Pittsburgh.
It’s not even debatable that New England’s defense faces its toughest challenge of the season. But even for a resurgent Pittsburgh defense – which has improved by leaps and bounds since a healthy James Harrison, Bud Dupree and Ryan Shazier returned – can the Patriots be stopped? This past weekend they hung 34 points and approached 400 yards against a Texans defense that was metrically one of the best units in the league.
Interesting trend to be aware of: New England is 1-6 ATS in their last seven AFC Championship games. They are currently -6 home favorites at most sportsbooks.