Strap on your helmet and lace up your cleats because for the next five months, it’s all about college football. For fans and bettors alike, the NCAA season is just about the most exciting campaign in all of sports.
Here’s a few key things that will ensure that this upcoming season isn’t just entertaining, but also profitable.
First and foremost, it’s always about the number and the value it brings to you. Lines are sharp, particularly this time of year. So shop a number around and only move on it when it is the best number for you.
There are roughly 50 college football games a week you can bet. If the number just isn’t right, stay away. Now, if a line is around a “hot number,” for the extra few cents, buy it up or down.
Less is more. For anyone in the handicapping end that likes to release tons of games or on the betting end that likes to play half the board, if it works for you, more power to you. Personally, I would rather go 2-0 than 6-4. Less games, less stress, and less juice. Remember, it’s better to have one wife like Heidi Klum than a hundred like Rosie O’Donnell.
Don’t “chase” your money. If you are 0-2 in the morning games, that doesn’t mean you must double up in the afternoon. It’s easier to recoup two units than it is four units. On the flip side, if you are 2-0 in the morning, stay the same denomination per unit. Money management is as or more important than wins and losses.
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Lastly, be as selective in choosing your plays as you are in choosing a spouse. I look around the sportsbooks and see why there are as many losers as there are divorces in the world.
Stick to these simple guidelines and this will be a fun and successful college football season.
Here are this week’s Best Bets (Lines are as of Tuesday morning and can change):
Saturday
Toledo +11.5 at Kentucky: Mark Stoops’ Wildcats come off their best season in decades, but I don’t see how this team can lay double-digits here. They rely solely upon throwing the ball after losing their top ball-carrier, Benny Snell Jr. to the NFL, and only return four defensive starters. This includes their entire secondary.
This doesn’t bode well as they face a Rockets team that has most of their offense back, including quarterback Mitchell Guadagni (candidate for MAC Offensive Player of the Year). This is an explosive offense that put up over 50 points six times a season ago, while averaging over 40.3 PPG. TOLEDO
Northwestern +6.5 at Stanford: These two teams only met once in recent years as Northwestern, a 10-point underdog, bested Stanford, 16-6, back in September of 2015.
Stanford is one of the least experienced squads in the nation, returning just nine starters to a team that ranked 123rd in rushing last year. The Cardinal does have a stud of a quarterback in K.J. Costello.
However, the Wildcats, who have covered eight straight as a road underdog, have a talented running back in Isaiah Bowser (864 yards rushing in eight games last season) and most of a defense that only gave up points to some of the best offenses in the nation a season ago.
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I am not saying that Stanford is looking forward here, but with USC on deck and it being the Pac-12 opener,(Northwestern has UNLV up next following a bye), the Cardinal might be a bit distracted. NORTHWESTERN
Georgia -21 at Vanderbilt: I don’t normally like laying wood like this in the early weeks of the season, but national title contender, Georgia (which shares the SEC with Alabama) must come out of the gate strong and keep their foot on the gas all season, hoping for ‘Bama to slip up.
This game will be won in the trenches, where the Bulldogs have an overwhelming edge. They have won and covered the last two years over the Commodores, by 28 and 31 points. GEORGIA
Oregon +3.5 vs. Auburn (at Arlington, Texas): This is a matchup between 2011’s National Championship title game combatants, being played on a neutral site at AT&T Stadium. We see a battle between a very experienced Ducks quarterback and offensive line and a very stout and strong Auburn defensive line.
Justin Herbert turned down the NFL to return as the Ducks play-caller. The talk is that an SEC team is taking on a Pac-12 squad, but it is that hook that urges me to side with the underdog. OREGON
Last week: 1-1
Season: 1-1