A Super Bowl winner? Let it ride

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Since I was never good at Roman Numerals, for the purposes of this article we will refer to this year’s Super Bowl as SB 50!

Wow, how the game and times have changed since SB I (I know that Roman Numeral) when the mighty Packers whipped the Kansas City Chiefs 35-10 in Los Angeles at Memorial Coliseum back in 1967, which was a very good year as Frank Sinatra would sing.

The MVP in that game was Bart Starr, the Packers QB for you young folks. The biggest difference besides today’s rules is the players are just so much bigger, stronger and faster. No more just run the ball down their throats or the end run.

So how do we approach this year’s game? I have been giving it a lot of thought and cruised the books, talking to as many bettors as possible. This past weekend I decided to watch an old movie just to relax my fertile mind, poured a glass of wine, sat back and popped in “Let it Ride,” my favorite horse movie that requires very little thinking.

Richard Dreyfuss plays Jay Trotter, a cabbie along with his buddy Looney (David Johansen). They get a tip on a horse and head to the track. Looney is just that, looney, but he reminds me of some bettors in real life.

One scene I love is when his bookie comes looking to strong arm him. He runs into Trotter and tells him Looney owes him $550. Trotter finds Looney and asks him how he could owe that much. Looney says he wanted to bet 50 bucks but somehow $550 came out of his mouth.

As the movie progresses the tip horse wins but Trotter, who meets a young Jennifer Tilly in the clubhouse wearing a red dress she can hardly keep on, decides to keep playing and he continues winning.

Now a race is coming up and he does not know what horse to bet on. Trotter moves through the grandstand asking everyone who they like and as they tell him he scratches that horse off his program until left with just one, the longest shot in the race.

He goes to the betting window and asks the teller that took all his previous wagers to just let it ride and lays out all the cash. If you have seen the movie you know what happened next. If not, keep paying attention and the hidden answer will come up shortly. By the way, Teri Garr played Trotter’s wife and the track scenes were filmed at Hialeah Park.

OK, now let’s get to SB 50. If Cam “Superman” Newton wins this game he will become just the third QB who won the college championship and the SB. He will be in good company along with Joe “Willie” Namath and Joe Montana. Too bad his name isn’t Joe Newton.

This will be Peyton Manning’s fourth SB, each with a different head coach. He will be the oldest QB ever to start a SB, passing John Elway. Cam Newton will most likely be the MVP of the league. By the way, Super Bowl QB MVP’s have gone 0-6-1 ATS since 1998.

When talking to bettors, most say they would take +7 in the game. That would be a very enticing number that the wise guys would be all over, but doubt it will get there except very late for some small books that just want to try and reduce their risk.

It’s interesting that head coach Ron Rivera for the Panthers was on the Bears’ winning SB team back in 1985 and was the defensive coach for Chicago in 2006 when they lost to Peyton in that year’s SB.

Also, of the 49 previous SB’s, just six times has the pointspread come into play. So if you like the Black Cats, lay the number. If you like Denver just bet them on the money line.

Now I have been leading up to this article for a few weeks talking about body language. Bettors remember the last thing they saw, which was the Panthers crushing the Cardinals and with a young Cam running up and down the sidelines looking like he could go out and play another game. 

We saw Manning sitting on the sidelines as the Patriots went for a two point conversion which would have most likely sent the game into OT. He looked so tired if as to say please don’t get the 2.

My dear old dad told me on several occasions, “When it looks too easy it’s usually not.” As I trotted through the books this past week I could not find a single person who thought that Denver could win. Manning is too old, Cam is too big, fast and young.

This leads me to the Jay Trotter system. We will just take the Broncos on the money line. Somehow, someway Manning’s top defense will come up with some key stops and engineer a win. One for the old folks. 

Now it’s time for “1 for Thursday” in hopes of breaking my two game losing streak. This week we will side with Wisconsin over Ohio State. The Badgers are very tough at home and catch the Buckeyes off a big revenge game with Maryland. We will lay less than 10 points.

Remember to get out and bet some of those props. This year looks like a good time for an OT at +550 over at Westgate. You could be walking around lucky and not even know it.

Richard Saber, a former director of race and sports at the famed Stardust book, is GT’s horse racing and sports handicapper. Twitter: @SabesBet. Email: [email protected].

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