Aaron Rodgers Passing Props & MVP Odds: New Jets QB Poised for Comeback Season

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After months of speculation and silence, Aaron Rodgers is finally a New York Jet. Both teams may have been patient to get this deal done, but sportsbooks weren’t. Bettors can now wager on the quarterback’s 2023 campaign, including passing props and futures bets.

How will the Jets’ newest star fare in the Big Apple? Will he take flight and deliver a Super Bowl to this sorry franchise, or will he follow in Brett Favre’s footsteps as a New York failure?

Let’s jump into the different bets you can place, where we give our thoughts on which side of the line you should take.

More on NFL: Super Bowl odds 2024 | NFL betting odds

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Aaron Rodgers Prop Bets for 2023

Check out the different Aaron Rodgers prop bets that bettors can put money on, including passing yardage and touchdown totals and MVP odds.

Aaron Rodgers Total Passing Yards Over/Under 4,000.5 (-112)

Rodgers is coming off the worst statistical season of his career, throwing for only 3,695 yards and 6.8 yards per attempt over a full 17 games. On a per-game average, that’s 217.4 yards — by far the lowest of his career.

In Rodgers’ defense, he was working with the worst receiving corps of his career. It’ll be a different story in New York, where he gets to throw passes to a talented wide receiver room that features 2022 Offensive Rookie of the Year, Garrett Wilson.

Rodgers has topped 4,000 yards passing in 10 of his 15 starting seasons, which is good efficiency for this prop. But if we exclude the two injury-plagued seasons earlier in his career, that means he’s missed the 4,000 mark just three times.

4,000 yards nowadays doesn’t carry the same weight as it once did. Last year, nine quarterbacks reached the 4,000-yard mark, including the likes of Kirk Cousins and Geno Smith. Rodgers is unquestionably more talented than either of those quarterbacks, even at his ripe age of 40 years old.

Before last year, the last time he missed the 4,000 mark while suiting up for at least eight games was 2015 (3,821). So if Rodgers is healthy in 2023, odds are that he clears this line. Fire away at the Over.

Our pick: Over 4,000.5 passing yards (-112, FanDuel Sportsbook)

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Aaron Rodgers Total Passing Touchdowns Over/Under 28.5 (-112)

Similar to his passing yards, Rodgers saw a decline in passing touchdowns after throwing for 48 and 37 touchdowns in his two most recent MVP seasons. 

Rodgers would rack up double-digit touchdowns from Davante Adams alone, so losing him had an immediate effect on his touchdown total. Though there isn’t a receiver of Adams caliber in New York, there’s still Wilson, who looks to take a leap forward in his game as he enters his second season. There’s also running back Breece Hall, who caught four touchdowns in seven games as a rookie.

Touchdowns are more volatile than yards, so there’s a chance that Rodgers either crushes his touchdown prop line or falls completely short of it. But if his career in Green Bay is any indication of what to expect in 2023, he will probably exceed the 28.5 touchdown line.

Rodgers topped 28.5 passing scores eight times in 13 healthy starting seasons, which bodes well for hitting the Over.

Our pick: Over 28.5 passing touchdowns (-112, Caesars Sportsbook)

Sportsbooks have posted prop lines and futures bets for New York Jets QB Aaron Rodgers’ 2023 season. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)

Aaron Rodgers MVP Odds (+1800, Caesars)

After Rodgers’ career-low season last year, people thought that his MVP years may be behind him… or are they?

It was only two years when the Packers legend won the award in back-to-back seasons. When he won his third in 2021, he entered the season as a +3000 longshot, so he has overcome longer odds before.

MVP voters don’t just glance at the numbers. They also appreciate a nice story and if Rodgers can lead the Jets to their first playoff appearance in 13 seasons — the longest playoff drought in all of North American professional sports — then that would be a nice selling point.

The AFC is loaded with MVP-caliber quarterbacks. In fact, eight of the top nine favorites on the MVP odds boards are in the AFC, including Rodgers at seventh. If Rodgers can beat out Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa for the AFC East title, while also putting up quality numbers, then he’ll have a great shot at tying Peyton Manning for the most MVPs in NFL history.

Also read: 2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds | 2023 Defensive Player of the Year odds

About the Author
Cyrus Eshaghoff

Cyrus Eshaghoff

Cyrus Eshaghoff is a New York-based sports betting writer at Gaming Today who covers the UFC, NFL, and NBA. Whether it's heated debates or uncovering statistical insights, he loves discussing (and writing about) sports.

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