Based on the Serie A table, AC Milan will be overmatched against Napoli in the Champions League on Wednesday. Napoli are running away with Serie A, with a lead of more than 20 points on fourth-place AC Milan, but a key injury to one of their top players makes Leg 1 at San Siro a coin flip.
In Gaming Today’s breakdown of the Champions League quarterfinal showdown between AC Milan and Napoli, we examine Napoli’s chances without Victor Osimhen.
The top scorer in Serie A was ruled out on Tuesday, and FanDuel responded to the news by making Napoli a slight underdog.
These teams have met twice in Serie A this season, with Napoli winning the first match-up 2-1 without Osimhen. In the rematch on April 2 with Napoli’s top scorer once again unavailable, Milan won 4-0 at Napoli, a head-turning result, regardless of who was available for Napoli Manager Luciano Spalletti.
Betting Odds for Wednesday’s AC Milan vs. Napoli Match
Here are AC Milan vs. Napoli betting lines available on top sports betting apps.
The prices below apply to Leg 1 on Wednesday. Sportsbooks also offer both teams’ odds to advance to the semifinals.
Napoli are favored to advance on DraftKings (-195), FanDuel (-188), and Caesars (-200). Milan are the underdogs to go through on DraftKings (+155), FanDuel (+152), and Caesars (+150).
SOCCER · Wed (4/12) @ 3:00 pm ET
|San Siro, Milan, IT|
AC Milan Roster, Injuries, and Betting News
Milan got to this point in the Champions League by going 3-2-1 in a group featuring Chelsea, RB Salzburg, and Dinamo Zagreb to secure a second-place finish. They then met Tottenham in the round of 16. The Serie A side eliminated Spurs 1-0 on aggregate, scoring seven minutes into Leg 1 and keeping Spurs scoreless for 180 minutes.
Manager Stefano Pioli’s side has shown it can compete with the best teams in Europe, but inconsistency has been an issue. Less than two weeks ago, they lost 3-1 to Udinese, then beat Napoli 4-0, followed by a 0-0 draw against Serie A’s 14th-place team, Empoli. Go figure.
The silver lining for Milan coming off that result on April 7 is that it came with first-choice attackers Rafael Leão, Brahim Diaz, and Olivier Giroud all playing as subs, presumably to save them for the Champions League this week.
The injury situation, or relative lack thereof, is a big reason Milan have moved from slight underdogs to slight favorites in Leg 1. Center back Pierre Kalulu is unlikely to play on Wednesday due to a calf injury but should be back for Leg 2 next week. Zlatan Ibrahimovic is also unavailable, but his team has adjusted to rarely having him on the pitch this season.
Napoli Roster, Injuries, and Betting News
At full strength, Napoli have been one of the most impressive teams in Europe. Oddsmakers have noticed, as DraftKings gives them the third-best odds (+350) to win the title.
But even amid a breakout season by 22-year-old Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, (the Georgian has emerged in ’22-23 as one of the most coveted players on the continent), Napoli’s undisputed leader is Nigerian star forward Osimhen, who has scored 21 goals in Serie A and four more in the Champions League.
With Osimhen officially ruled out for Leg 1 — and prices for that match shifting following confirmation of his absence — it’s hard to overstate the significance of his absence. Napoli, however, have scored 66 goals in 29 Serie A matches — with 45 of those coming from players other than Osimhen.
Kvaratskhelia (who has 12 goals and 10 assists in Serie A), Elif Elmas, Piotr Zielinski, and Hirving Lozano can answer the questions about whether Napoli are a one-man show on Wednesday. To the team’s credit, it went 4-0 during a stretch without Osimhen in the fall, winning those matches by a combined score of 10-3.
In addition to Osimhen, Napoli will miss reserve forward Giovanni Simeone, whose father, Diego, manages Atletico Madrid.
AC Milan vs. Napoli Props
Below is a sampling of props for AC Milan vs. Napoli.
Anytime Goalscorer (FanDuel):
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: +200
- Olivier Giroud: +250
- Ante Rebic: +280
- Divock Origi: +310
- Hirving Lozano +320
- Rafael Leao: +360
Correct Score (FanDuel):
- AC Milan 1-0: +700
- AC Milan 2-0: +1200
- AC Milan 2-1: +1000
- Napoli 1-0: +700
- Napoli 2-0: +1200
- Napoli 2-1: +1000
- 0-0: +700
- 1-1: +500
Total Goal Props (DraftKings):
- Over 0.5 goals -1800, Under 0.5 goals: +850
- Over 1.5 goals -275, Under 1.5 goals: +210
- Over 2.5 goals +115, Under 2.5 goals: -145
- Over 3.5 goals +300, Under 3.5 goals: -425
AC Milan vs. Napoli Broadcast Info: Where to Watch
- Date/Time: Wednesday, April 12, 3:00 p.m. ET
- Location: San Siro
Watch this match at one of the following:
AC Milan vs. Napoli Prediction: AC Milan 1, Napoli 1
Oddsmakers are split on who should be the favorite, and understandably so. Champions League matches are unpredictable enough to begin with, and they can be even harder to assess when they involve teams that know each other as well as league rivals like these two.
If Napoli can get a draw on the road, they have to like their chances of advancing in Leg 2 in front of their raucous home crowd. In a game between one team that’s been unpredictable all season (AC Milan) and another that is playing without its most important player (Napoli), a draw feels like as good a prediction as any.
Expect a low-scoring match that should be as hotly contested as any of the four quarterfinal games this week.
Here are a few other bets available at DraftKings that are worth checking out:
- Both Teams To Score – Yes (-120)
- Draw (+215)
- AC Milan Draw No Bet (-110)
Also read: Premier League futures | 2026 World Cup odds
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