The ACC men’s basketball tournament enters the quarterfinal round today at the Greensboro Coliseum. We’re here to examine ACC Tournament odds and betting lines to offer predictions on the eventual winner come Saturday night.
It’s been a strange year for the ACC, with perennial powers Duke and North Carolina not among the top-25 teams in the country for much of the season.
The Tar Heels entered the season ranked No. 1 in the country with four starters back after losing to Kansas in the NCAA Championship game last year. North Carolina now needs to make a run in the ACC Tournament to gain an NCAA Tournament berth.
Miami and Virginia shared the ACC regular season championship with a record of 15-5.
Odds to Win 2023 ACC Tournament
Let’s take a look at ACC Tournament odds from top sportsbook apps.
ACC Tournament Betting Lines
Now, let’s examine ACC Tournament game betting lines at top online sportsbooks. Games will be listed here as spreads, totals, and moneylines are hung at sportsbooks.
Betting Favorites to Win ACC Tournament
Given the topsy-turvy nature of the regular season, this year’s ACC Tournament can be viewed as a more wide-open affair.
Here are the top contenders to win the 2023 ACC Tournament with odds from DraftKings:
Duke Blue Devils (+300)
Duke carries a six-game winning streak into the ACC Tournament. The Blue Devils ended the regular season with a 62-57 win to sweep the regular season series against arch-rival North Carolina. Duke faces Pittsburgh today in the ACC quarterfinals.
KenPom has Duke ranked No. 31 overall based largely on the strength of its defense. Duke yielded just 63.8 points per game, and only Virginia gave up fewer in the ACC.
Freshman center Kyle Filipowski leads Duke with 15 points per game and 9.2 points per game. The only other double-digit scorer is guard Jeremy Roach (13.2 ppg). First-year head coach Jon Scheyer’s young team has improved over the course of the regular season.
The Blue Devils are playing their best basketball at the right time of the year. But it’s somewhat surprising to see them favored over Miami, which beat Duke handily the last time out, 81-59.
Virginia Cavaliers (+320)
UVA captured its 11th ACC regular season title, and perhaps more impressively, its sixth in the last 10 years. The Cavaliers again led the ACC in scoring defense, allowing opponents just 60.5 points per game.
After earning a double bye as the No. 2 seed, Virginia faces North Carolina in the quarterfinals. Virginia benefits from strong guard play under the direction of Armaan Franklin (12.6 ppg) and Kihei Clark (11.1 ppg). Jayden Gardner is a force at forward (11.8 ppg) and leads the Cavaliers with 5.8 rebounds per game.
Clark, a senior point guard, is UVA’s leader and the Cavaliers’ postseason fortunes will rely largely on his performance and play-making abilities.
Miami Hurricanes (+360)
Miami grabbed a share of the ACC regular season title with a 78-76 win over Pittsburgh. The Hurricanes also snatched the ACC Tournament’s No. 1 seed for the first time since 2013.
As such, Miami enjoyed a double bye before playing its first game at noon on Thursday against Wake Forest. There’s a potential semifinal matchup against Duke, but the Hurricanes dominated the Blue Devils the last time they met.
The Hurricanes have one of the best backcourts in the ACC with guards Isaiah Wong, Jordan Miller, and Nigel Pack. They will be a tough out in both the ACC and NCAA tournaments.
North Carolina Tar Heels (+600)
One of the biggest storylines entering the 2023 ACC Tournament revolves around North Carolina’s NCAA Tournament status. Clearly, the Tar Heels were on the outside looking in after losing to Duke in the regular-season finale.
North Carolina rolled over Boston College, 85-61, in the second round on Wednesday. UNC will take on Virginia tonight in the quarterfinal round.
North Carolina needs to make hay in Greensboro if the Tar Heels have any hope of repeating their magical run to the NCAA Championship game last year. UNC’s “core four” of Armando Bacot, Caleb Love, R.J. Davis, and Leaky Black all returned for another shot at a national title.
The Tar Heels rank dead last in the ACC when it comes to three-point field goal percentage at 30.9%. UNC needs more sustained production from Northwestern transfer Pete Nance (10.1 ppg) if it hopes to advance to the NCAA Tournament.
ACC Tournament Longshots
North Carolina State Wolfpack (+850)
NC State’s Terquavion Smith is a do-everything guard who’ll likely be a first-round selection in the NBA Draft. Smith leads the team with 17.3 points, 4.4 assists, and 1.5 steals per game.
Smith exploded for 30 points in NC State’s 97-77 win over Virginia Tech on Wednesday. The Wolfpack will face Clemson in the quarterfinals.
The Wolfpack are 23-9 overall on the season with wins over Miami, Duke, and North Carolina. NC State is capable of beating anyone in this bracket.
Aside from Smith, the Wolfpack also gets consistent production from guards Jarkel Joiner and Casey Morsell. Forward D.J. Burns gives them a powerful inside presence with 13.1 ppg and a team-leading 5.1 rebounds per contest.
Head coach Kevin Keatts’ team is worth a sprinkle at these odds to win the tournament.
Pittsburgh Panthers (+1200)
Pitt closed the regular season with two consecutive losses to a bad Notre Dame team and a stellar Miami squad. The Panthers are teetering on the NCAA Tournament bubble, and could use a win or two to cement their berth.
Pitt beat Georgia Tech, 89-81, in the second round. The Panthers now get Duke in the quarterfinals.
Pitt finished third in the ACC regular season standings with wins over Miami, Virginia, NC State, and North Carolina. Pitt’s offense is fueled by forward Blake Hinson (16.1 ppg) and guard Jamarius Burton (15.6 ppg).
The Panthers also boast a top-five defense in the ACC after allowing just 69.3 points per game.
ACC Tournament Predictions
You could make a case for seven of the eight remaining teams to cut down the nets as ACC Tournament champion on Saturday night. Given the wide-open nature of this year’s tourney, we’re betting on three teams to win at progressively higher odds.
Miami offers decent value at +360 as the No. 1 seed. We’re wagering that the Hurricanes will face either North Carolina (+600) or North Carolina State (+850) in the championship game, and hoping that one of those two teams at longer odds prevails. Here’s what the payouts would look like for $100 win bets on each team:
Miami: $460 ($360 in winnings and $100 bet stake back)
Implied Probability of Winning: 21.74%
North Carolina: $700 ($600 in winnings and $100 bet stake back)
Implied Probability of Winning: 14.29%
NC State: $950 ($850 in winnings and $100 bet stake back)
Implied Probability of Winning: 10.53%