AL Cy Young Odds 2023: Framber Valdez, Shane McClanahan the New Favorites

When the Major League Baseball season commenced almost three months ago, veteran New York Yankees right-hander Gerrit Cole and Texas Rangers RHP Jacob deGrom were co-favorites at +700 to win the award for the 2023 American League season.

In the ensuing months, though, much has changed.

The new frontrunners on the oddsboards at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, PointsBet, and many other sites are Houston left-hander Framber Valdez and Tampa Bay’s Shane McClanahan, also a lefty. They are running a close one-two.

Cole, a right-hander, is right up there, too, but deGrom is literally off the charts.

Earlier this month, he had Tommy John surgery and naturally will be lost for the rest of the season. He worked only 30.1 innings for his new team after spending nine years with the NY Mets, which included Cy Young seasons in 2018 and 2019.

As for who will win this year’s award, what seems to attract the eye of Baseball Writers’ of America voters are win totals. At least that’s been the case in the AL for the past 12 years when the pitcher who had the most victories or tied for the most took home the honor.

The last player to receive the award with a less-than-glitzy record was Seattle’s Felix Hernandez in 2010. He was only 13-12 but excelled for a miserable Mariners team that finished last in the AL West at 61-101. It also was impressive that he had a league-best 2.27 ERA.

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Odds for American League Cy Young 2023

Favorites to Win AL Cy Young in 2023

In a preseason analysis, Valdez and McClanahan were identified in this spot as Cy Young contenders with the strongest betting value… along with Chicago White Sox righty Dylan Cease.

Well, two out of three ain’t bad.

Valdez opened at +2000 and now is at +300 (DraftKings, PointsBet) despite having a pedestrian-looking 7-5 record through 15 starts compared with his 17-6 mark last season. His ERA is 2.27, second-best in the majors (right behind McClanahan). His strikeout-to-walk ratio in 2023 is a sterling 5.0. In 2022, his ERA was 2.82, and his K/BB ratio at 2.9.

One reason for his lesser record is the fact he’s had fewer runs to work with, as the Astros have scored a norm of 3.80 in his starts. Houston provided him with 5.08 runs per outing in 2022.

Pennant-race pressure shouldn’t affect him. In last year’s postseason run to the championship, he was 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA in four starts. Two of the victories were in the World Series against Philadelphia.

As for McClanahan (+360 FanDuel), he’s got the most victories in the majors (11-1) and the lowest ERA at 2.23. But bettors might want to keep a wary eye on him.

He opened the season with Cy Young odds of +1600 and was the wagering favorite only a week ago at +250, but on Thursday, he left his start against Kansas City in the fourth inning with back tightness. Uh-oh!

His odds promptly lengthened to +410 since it wasn’t immediately known how serious the injury was and if he’d need to go on the injured list.

The number has since shortened with news that he would not be going on the IL and will start Friday’s game against the Mariners in Seattle.

Other Favorites to Consider for AL Cy Young in 2023

Cole and Toronto right-hander Kevin Gausman are both available at +550 (DraftKings), tied for third. That number seems right for Cole but maybe too short for Gausman.

By far the best thing the Yankees have going for them is Cole, who’s 8-1 (2.78 ERA) for a squad that’s otherwise 35-34 and not getting much production on offense since slugger Aaron Judge went on the IL with a toe injury.

One of the improvements Cole has made has been the reduction in homers yielded. He’s given up 10 in 103.2 innings in 2023. Last season, that number was 33, second most in the majors, in 200.2 innings. And he gave up three more in 18.1 innings in the postseason.

Unless the Yankees make a serious run at Tampa Bay for the AL East lead, he may need an absurdly strong season to catch the voters’ eyes.

As for Gausman, he’s 7-3 but with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. He is a workhorse with an average of more more than 100 pitches in his 16 starts.

During a six-start stretch from May 10 to June 6, covering 40 innings, the Blue Jays’ ace had an ERA of 1.35. But in his past three outings, he’s allowed 10 earned runs in 16.2 innings as his ERA rose from 2.63 to that 3.10 mark. Hmm.

On the positive side, though, it has been reported that he’s gained about 2 mph on his fastball since April.

Longshots Worth a Look for AL Cy Young in 2023

It would not be wise to disregard long shots when digging for the next Cy Young winner, for there have been some nice payouts in recent years.

Two years ago, Robbie Ray, then with Toronto, won the award after his odds ballooned to +30000 in mid-April after a slow start. In 2017, Tampa Bay’s Blake Snell won the AL award at +10000.

So, why not give all the names listed at least a cursory glance?

AL Cy Young Odds FAQ