NCAAF · Sat (10/9) @ 8:27pm ET
|Kyle Field, College Station, Texas|
Our Pick: ALA Alabama at Over 44.5 (-1667). Get a $1,000 risk-free bet at FanDuel today!
We honed in on the past three between these two teams, in which they combined to score 76, 58, and 68 points.
That’s a solid foundation, but then we dug deeper. Redshirt freshman quarterback Bryce Young might have started separating himself from the rest of the Heisman pack by leading the Tide past Ole Miss last week.
This week, he continues that separation—Young is even money to win that trophy at some shops. We expect a poised and polished field general to dismantle an A&M squad scraping and scrapping for leadership from its own quarterback post.
Alabama Crimson Tide (5-0)
And here are more pertinent numbers—42-21, 63-14, 31-29, 48-14, and 44-13. That’s every Tide game, so far. Notice the pattern? Points, and more points.
Young is just a rookie, from Pasadena, CA., but all it takes to get primed for the big time in Tuscaloosa is one redshirt season.
The 6-foot, 194-pound quarterback owns a 185.1 quarterback rating, trailing only Grayson McCall of Coastal Carolina, Kenny Pickett of Pitt, and Malik Willis of Liberty.
His 73.2% completion rate and 17 passing touchdowns are both in the top five, and his 9.2 yards per pass ranks 20th.
Bama’s 45-point average is tied for third, and its 19.2-point yield is among the top 25 scoring defenses.
The ridiculous talent behind Young starts with tailback Brian Robinson Jr., with 73 rushes for 379 yards and six touchdowns. True freshmen Roydell Williams (6.4-yard average on 24 runs) and Jase McClellan (4.8 average) have both scored a TD.
Jahleel Billingsley (17.8-yard average) and Cameron Latu (five TDs) are the sophomore tight ends who have combined to nab 19 passes for 300 yards.
Sophomore Jameson Williams has emerged from a preseason list of no fewer than 11 wideouts on the Alabama roster to lead it with 364 receiving yards, a stunning per-catch average of 21.4 yards.
John Metchie and Slade Bolden average double-digit yards on their combined 40 catches. The list of young talent goes on and on and on in Tuscaloosa.
An SEC title match against Georgia seems imminent, possibly even just a warmup to a Tide–Bulldogs clash in the national playoffs.
Alabama Vs. Texas A&M Odds
Texas A&M Aggies (3-2)
When redshirt freshman quarterback Haynes King went down with a fractured right ankle against Colorado, A&M’s offense suffered.
On paper, at least, it shouldn’t have wilted. Second-generation Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White, in his College Football Power Ratings annual, had Zach Calzada rated higher (5 to 3.5) than King.
A&M coach Jimbo Fisher believes King, who underwent surgery, could return by the end of the month.
Fact is, the Aggies don’t rank among the nation’s élite no matter who is under center. It scores only 23.4 points a game, in the bottom third of the game.
In losses to Arkansas and Mississippi State, Calzada went 32-for-56 for 286 yards, a TD running and passing, and two interceptions.
There are aspects of the A&M defense that rate highly, and CBS should feature the battle between Alabama third-year sophomore right tackle Amari Knight and Aggies junior left defensive end DeMarvin Leal to its national TV audience.
But the best of the best is visiting Kyle Field. It could be a very long night for every Aggie and the famed 12th Man student section in the stadium.
Sports Betting Recommendation
A rigorous review of every game usually produces a few each week that stand out, in some way, above the rest as value, and that’s how this Over earned a bunch of ink circles on our legal pad.
The average of two of our three models show Alabama tallying 40 points, the Aggies getting 24. Bama is simply a machine, averaging a third-best 0.634 points per play.
The Tide line has crept from -14.5 to -17.5, which didn’t bleep on our radar. The total set off the alarms. Alabama creates the comfortable lead, securing the Over without needing to sweat a victory by margin.