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Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs

Over/Under: 10.5

First pitch: 11:20 p.m. PT

Probable pitchers: Bryse Wilson (0-0, 8.31 ERA) vs. Tyler Chatwood (3-1, 3.69 ERA)

With two of the top-five highest-scoring teams in the National League going at it, in what could very much be an extreme hitter’s park on any given night, you wouldn’t expect there to be all unders.

However, that’s been the case in the first three meetings in this four-game set. So, will the under complete the sweep this afternoon?

I don’t believe so. When Wilson was last up in the big leagues on the club’s Opening Day roster, the 21-year-old did not fare too well in two appearances — one being a start the first weekend of the season, which I bet and lost. In that lone starting assignment, he failed to make it out of the fourth and allowed four runs and nine baserunners. One of the five hits off Wilson in that outing went for a homer.

Flash forward a couple of months later and Wilson is back in the Majors. He seemingly comes in hot, too, having his recent surrendered two earned runs or fewer in seven of his last eight outings at Triple-A Gwinnett.

Even so, just like in his first start of the campaign against the Philadelphia Phillies, Wilson must contend with a challenging matchup, one I don’t think he can handle effectively for a lengthy duration.

The rookie goes up against a veteran, Chatwood, who is making just his third start of the year. That’s because he’s primarily pitched out of the bullpen, a step down from his continued tenure on the pitching staff last season when he registered a 5.30 ERA in 20 starts (and four relief appearances).

Chatwood was pretty good in those first two matchups but this figures to be a tougher predicament, opposing a real tough Braves offense.

Not only that but working from home could prove to be problematic for the Chicago right-hander. He posted a higher ERA at Wrigley Field (5.52) than on the road (4.98) last year in his first go-around with the team. Those Wrigley winds will be blowing out a little bit as well.

Play: OVER 10.5 (-120)

Yesterday’s Result: Royals-Indians Under 9 (WIN)

Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: 46-38-6, +3.55 units

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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