Angels vs. Astros Predictions, Odds, Props: Back the Underdog To Defeat the Defending Champions

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MLB on FS1 headlines a short slate on the diamond tonight as the Los Angeles Angels will take on the defending World Series Champion, Houston Astros. Both teams have gotten off to sluggish starts but are in striking range of the AL West crown. This should be a great game, and we are here to break down the action with an Angels vs. Astros predictions, odds, and prop bets preview.

Read more: MLB MVP odds | Odds to win World Series

Angels vs. Astros Betting Odds: Run Line, Moneyline, Total

Before placing your Angels vs. Astros bet, check out the odds and lines from the top US sports betting apps. This will ensure you get the best numbers for your wager, and with each sportsbook having its own bonus offers, you can really rake in the bonus bets for tonight’s action.

Here are the Angels vs. Astros odds from some of our favorite mobile sportsbooks.

Bet TypeMoneyline
Open

Angels vs. Astros Betting Trends & Notes

Angels vs. Astros Predictions, Odds, Props: Back the Underdog To Defeat the Defending Champions
Los Angeles Angels’ Mike Trout (27) follows through on a swing and is featured in our Angels vs. Astros prop bet. (AP Photo/Ashley Landis)

Although they have started slow, the Astros are starting to pick up steam, winning five of the last seven games. The offense still sits below a 100 wRC+, but over the last week of play, Houston ranks 12th in wRC+ and OPS. They have also been hitting the ball hard lately, with a .231 ISO and 13 home runs in that same period.

While the Angels’ offense has also been hot, specifically Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, Houston has one of the best pitching staffs in baseball, and their best starter is getting the nod tonight. On the season, Framber Valdez holds a 2.38 ERA, and he has increased his K/9 while significantly decreasing his walk rate.

Valdez is giving up more hard contact than usual this season, but he is also striking guys out at a high rate, and his sinker and curveball have been money this year. He ranks in the 90th percentile in curve spin and is getting a Whiff% of 38.8% on that pitch. While his cutter and curve have been better swing-and-miss pitches, he throws the sinker nearly 50% of the time and has a -13 run value, tied for the best in baseball.

Meanwhile, the Angels will send out Reid Detmers, who is having a brutal season. He enters tonight with a 4.93 ERA and a FIP of 3.61. While his 11.43 K/9 is impressive, and his xERA and xFIP point towards positive regression, the Angels are 3-6 in his starts, and Detmers is still searching for his first win on the season.

He does not give up a lot of hard contact and is getting a lot of swing-and-miss results ranking in the 81st percentile in Whiff%. Luckily for Detmers, the Astros have the highest K% in the league (26.7%), which has increased to 28.5% over the last two weeks. In four career starts, Detmers is 1-1 with a 3.98 ERA against Houston, but with the Astros’ bats starting to wake up, he may be in for another long night.

Los Angeles Angels Betting Trends

  • The total has gone OVER in four of Los Angeles’ last five games
  • Los Angeles is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games against Houston
  • The total has gone OVER in six of Los Angeles’ last seven road games
  • Los Angeles is 1-5 SU in its last six games in Houston

Houston Astros Betting Trends

  • The total has gone OVER in four of Houston’s last five games
  • Houston is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games
  • Houston is 7-2 SU in its last nine home games
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of Houston’s last eight games against the AL West

MLB odds: Runlines, moneylines, totals 

Angels vs. Astros Prop Bet

Mike Trout 1+ Run Scored (-105, FanDuel)

Stop me if you have heard this one before, but Mike Trout is really good at baseball.

In 53 games, Trout has a slash of .278/.369/.522 with an xwOBA of .390 and a team-high 143 wRC+. He also continues to have some of the best power numbers in baseball, ranking in the 95th percentile in Barrel% and xSLG. Trout also ranks inside the top 10% of the league in HardHit%, xwOBA, and Max EV.

Trout has been very effective against fastballs in his career, and he has a +3 run value against the slider and +5 against cutters, both of which are pitches Valdez has relied on. While his -4 run value against sinkers is concerning, considering that Valdez throws that pitch 50% of the time, Trout has had success against the pitch in the past and is one of the best pound-for-pound hitters of all time.

In 21 plate appearances against Valdez, Trout only has two hits, but with a .333 OBP, he is getting on base enough for the rest of the team to create some action. The Angels rank fourth in wRC+ against lefties this season. Los Angeles has a good matchup in this game, which should give Trout plenty of chances to score.

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Angels vs. Astros Prediction

Houston comes into this game playing some good baseball, despite a poor effort against the Twins last night. They also have their ace on the mound, and the offense is finally starting to look normal. However, they have a terrible matchup tonight against Detmers, and Valdez has been due for some regression for a bit now.

Valdez does not walk batters, has improved his strikeout numbers, and has an arsenal of plus-value pitches. However, teams are smoking the ball against him this year, and the Angels are ranked ninth in HardHit% against Southpaws this season.

As a whole, Los Angeles’ offense is not all that great outside of Trout and Ohtani, but they rank fifth in wRC+ over the last two weeks and have hit 21 home runs. The bullpens both rank in the top eight in ERA, so the starting pitching matchup may determine the winner of this game.

Based on the trends, we will take a flyer with the Angels’ full game moneyline and the Angels’ F5 moneyline odds.

Angels vs. Astros pick: Angels F5 ML (+130) & Angels ML (+154) via FanDuel Sportsbook

How To Watch Angels vs. Astros

Date: Thursday, June 1, 2023

First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET

Location: Minute Maid Park — Houston, TX

Where to Watch: FS1

About the Author
DJ Corrigan

DJ Corrigan

Writer
DJ Corrigan is a sports betting writer for Gaming Today and has been covering the world of wagering since his days at Ohio State University. Corrigan's love of betting the Over and chasing the hungry dogs has led him to a career crunching numbers with an emphasis on NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, and MLB betting.

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