We have an ALCS rematch on MLB on Apple TV+ tonight, as the Houston Astros will take on the New York Yankees in the Bronx. These teams are trending in opposite directions, but this should still be a great matchup for some Friday night baseball.
The Yankees took the first game of the series last night and will look to take a massive series victory over one of the best teams in baseball with a win tonight. On the other side, Houston feels like a completely different team after acquiring Justin Verlander at the deadline. The offense has been hot, the pitching is deeper, and they have the experience to make it all the way.
If you need help making a pick for this game, we have got you covered as we break down the action with an Astros vs. Yankees predictions, odds, and props preview.
Astros vs. Yankees Betting Odds: Run Line, Moneyline, Total
Before making your Astros vs. Yankees pick, check out the odds and lines from the top US sports betting apps. This will ensure you get the best numbers for your wager, and with each sportsbook having its own bonus offers, you can rake in the bonus bets for tonight’s action.
Here are the Astros vs. Yankees odds from some of our favorite mobile sportsbooks.
Astros vs. Yankees Betting Trends
Here are some trends to consider for tonight’s Astros vs. Yankees matchup. Keep in mind that betting trends are not a clear indicator of which side to pick, but they are a great tool to help you find a winner.
Astros Betting Trends
- Houston is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games.
- Houston is 7-1 in its last eight games against New York.
- The total has gone Under in six of Houston’s last seven road games.
- The total has gone Under in four of Houston’s last six games in New York.
Yankees Betting Trends
- New York is 2-6 SU in its last eight when playing as the underdog.
- The total has gone Under in four of New York’s last five games against the Yankees.
- The total has gone Under in four of New York’s last five home games.
- New York is 1-8 SU in its last nine games played on Friday.
MLB odds: Run lines, moneylines, totals
The Houston Astros Have Arrived
Surprisingly, the Astros have not hit the ball well this season. They rank 15th in OBP, 13th in SLG, and their wRC+ sits at only 104. However, they have been hot over the last two weeks, ranking in the top 10 in OBP, SLG, wOBA, wRC+, HRs, and runs.
Houston is not hitting the ball as well as in previous seasons because of the noticeable decline of key players such as Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, and 2022 World Series MVP Jeremy Pena. Luckily, guys like Chas McCormick and Yordan Alvarez have been hitting the ball very well, but those two have only played a combined 133 games.
For most of the season, Kyle Tucker, who probably would be the frontrunner for AL MVP if Shohei Ohtani was not making history again, has been the entire offense for the Astros. They are starting to get healthy, which is a scary thought, and with the upgrade to their rotation at the deadline, Houston looks like they could repeat as champions.
Tonight, the Astros will send out Hunter Brown to get the start. While he has been roughed up in his last few starts, he is still striking guys out at a high rate, and his xERA and xFIP point toward some positive regression. His Barrel% has ballooned up to 13.5% over his last five starts, but he is going up against an offense that strikes out a lot and has not hit the ball all that hard.
What Has Happened to the New York Yankees?
Somehow, the Yankees are still well within the playoff race in the AL. This team has not been very good all season, and when Aaron Judge hit the IL for around two months, things went from bad to worse.
Judge is back, but it is clear that he is not 100% based on Aaron Boone’s comments, and there is just not a lot of juice behind this team. In the past, the Yankees got by on a dominating and deep lineup that could out-homer any team in baseball. While they still are in the top 10 in home runs this season, a large part of that is due to how well Judge was swinging the bat prior to his injury.
With Judge in the lineup, this is a different team, but when your second-best players according to fWAR are Anthony Volpe and Gleyber Torres, you have some problems. While Volpe has shown his power in his rookie year and Torres has had a mini-resurgence, neither of those guys is scary as everyday players.
They have also had to deal with the declines of Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu, and Anthony Rizzo this season — three crucial players to the Yankees’ success.
The lineup has not been the only bad part of this team, as the rotation outside of Gerrit Cole has been inconsistent, and the bullpen has started to regress. It also does not help that Luis Severino is getting the start tonight, as he has been awful this season. He is due for some positive regression, but with his xERA at 6.49 and xFIP at 5.06, that is not saying much.
Astros vs. Yankees Prop Bets
Hunter Brown Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-135, BetMGM)
Brown gives up a decent amount of hard contact, which could hurt you against the Yankees on the right day. However, he also strikes guys out at a high rate and is facing a lineup that has not had a lot of great performances lately.
He does not get guys to chase often, but Brown ranks in the 74th percentile in K% and is striking out just over 10 batters per nine innings. Over his last five starts, Brown has hit this number three times, and in the games he does go over this number, he is averaging seven strikeouts per game.
While he has struggled with the long ball recently, the Yankees’ lineup has not hit the ball well as of late and is striking out at a high number.
Astros vs. Yankees Prediction
We have two home-run pitchers playing in a home-run-friendly ballpark, with the weather playing a major factor tonight. According to BallParkPal.com, the wind will be blowing out hard tonight at Yankee Stadium, and they give this matchup a 25% boost on home runs tonight.
While both offenses have struggled at times, the Astros are getting hot, and with Judge back in the lineup, the Yankees are a completely different team offensively. Still, the offensive struggles showed from both sides in the series opener last night, as both teams only scored one run after the second inning.
However, the pitching matchup is not as good as last night, and we should be in for a lot of runs tonight. The trends heavily support the total going Under, especially between these two teams. But, with two pitchers who have struggled with hard contact and two lineups with a lot of potential, we will ride with the Over for this game.
Astros vs. Yankees Pick: Over 9 (-114) via FanDuel Sportsbook
How To Watch Astros vs. Yankees
Date: Friday, Aug. 4, 2023
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
Location: Yankee Stadium — Bronx, NY
Where to Watch: Apple Tv+