Banking on Greinke’s history bouncing back

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Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres

Over/Under: 7.5

First pitch: 7:10 p.m. Pacific

Probable Pitchers: Zack Greinke (0-1, 17.18 ERA) vs. Eric Lauer (1-0, 0.00 ERA)

Two Opening Day starters, coming off two very opposite performances, will each be making their second start of the campaign in the middle affair of this three-game set tonight.

For Greinke, it’ll be about putting his last showing behind him as quick as possible. For the second time in four years, the former AL Cy Young award winner yielded seven runs and three home runs in the season’s first contest. That’s actually something we can attempt to use in our favor, however, as Greinke actually has a pretty Teflon reputation of bouncing back after disastrous outings.

In fact, there have been 19 previous instances (including playoffs) this decade in which the 35-year-old was tagged for six or more earned runs. In each of the ensuing starts, Greinke collectively put together a 2.76 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 125-40 K/BB ratio across 127 total innings. In other words, he can be trusted in the immediate aftermath of a down day at the office.

Furthermore, helping our cause is the fact that Greinke has enjoyed plenty of success against San Diego throughout his career. In 22 meetings with the Friars, he’s 11-2 with a 2.20 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. More than half of those (13) came at pitcher-friendly Petco Park, where he’s 5-2 with an even stingier 1.96 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. At the very least, he should have an easier time keeping the ball in the yard.

Lauer, meanwhile, is coming off a very delightful Opening Day effort, beating the Giants with six shutout innings in which he scattered only five baserunners. Perhaps the 2016 first-round draft pick is about to break out. He certainly exhibited such potential as a rookie when he returned from injury late last year, allowing a mere four runs (three earned) combined in his final five starts. He faced Arizona twice in 2018 and they could only scratch across two runs (one earned) in 11+ innings opposite the 23-year-old lefty. UNDER 7.5 (-115)

Yesterday’s Result: Giants-Dodgers Under 8 (WIN)

Zylbert’s 2019 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 2-3, -1.35 units

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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Results
2019 MLB (0-1-0) Overall Record: 2-4-0

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