Be careful of big lines in college football

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When getting ready to make your college football plays, be it at the window or on your mobile app, choose your numbers wisely.

Thus far, we have seen 60 college football matchups with double-digit point spreads. Their record is 26-33-1.

I bring this up because this week there are 26 games (as of Tuesday) with a spread of 10 points or higher. Alabama is a 54.5-point favorite. There will be bettors taking the underdog just on principle. But, the Crimson Tide are fan favorites and will get action as well. So be careful this early in the season laying this type of wood.

The ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac 12, and SEC consist of the best teams in the nation. But with all respect to the Power Five, don’t just look here for your plays. Yes, these conferences will always be on TV. And many of us like to watch the games we have action on. But don’t bypass the AAC, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West or the Sun Belt conferences just because they aren’t as flashy or are not televised.

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There should be entertainment and fun involved when betting college football. But, I ask you this: isn’t it always more fun when you are making money? There’s gold to be found in the lesser conferences.

Having said this, it brings me into this week’s Best Bets (Lines are as of print and can change. If a line is around a Hot Number or moves against us, be smart):

Saturday

Ohio +5.5 at Pittsburgh: The young and inexperienced Pitt offensive line is atrocious, as four new starters showed last week, allowing four sacks in a 30-14 home loss to Virginia.

To be quite honest, I feel this game should be closer to a pick ‘em or even Ohio -1. The Bobcats have a monster offense with senior quarterback Nathan Rourke (188 yards passing, two touchdowns, zero interceptions a week ago) and a defense that shutout the San Diego State Aztecs last December.

They are fast starters, going 14-5 ATS the last 19 games played in the month of September, while the Panthers are notoriously slow starters, donning a 1-4 ATS mark the last five in the opening month of the season. OHIO

Syracuse -1 at Maryland: Don’t put too much stock in Maryland’s 79-point drubbing of Howard in Week 1. They will have no such luck against a stellar, Syracuse defense that returns a pair of defensive ends that each had double-digit sacks last year and a veteran secondary.

Sophomore quarterback Tommy DeVito was a bit flat in the ‘Cuse’s 24-0 blanking of Liberty. However, expect a big bounce back here, especially under head coach Dino Barbers and a very capable roster of ballcarriers. The Orange is 10-3 ATS the last 13 games played on the road. SYRACUSE

Wyoming -7 at Texas State: There are times to judge a matchup from a previous performance. And, there are times you should not. This is the earlier of the two. Texas State was shellacked by Texas A&M, 41-7, while Wyoming upended Missouri, 37-31, as a 15-point underdog. Granted, the Bobcats faced a better team in the Aggies, however, they only eked out eight yards rushing as they yielded over 232 yards on the ground.

The Cowboys can run the ball and keep the Texas State defense on the field and winded come the second half. Wyoming gets the bettors paid going 7-1 ATS the last eight games played vs. Sun Belt opponents and 5-1 ATS the last six games played overall. WYOMING

Minnesota at Fresno State +3: Big difference in opponents in Week 1 as Fresno State faced USC and Minnesota went up against South Dakota State. The Bulldogs covered the 14.5 point spread in a 31-23 loss while the Golden Gophers got lucky in a 28-21 victory and no cover, laying 14.5 points.

Fresno State possesses a very well-balanced offense, led by senior quarterback, Jorge Reyna and a defense that ranked third nationally a season ago, allowing just 14.1 PPG.

Minnesota will have problems in the trenches in this matchup. To make matters worse, P.J. Fleck is no match for the coaching mind of Jeff Tedford.

Look for the Bulldogs to exact some revenge from last year’s 21-14 loss to the Golden Gophers.

Fresno State is 16-5 ATS the last 21 games played at home, 8-1 ATS the last nine games played in the month of September, and 28-7-1 ATS the last 36 games played overall. FRESNO STATE

Last week: 1-3

Season: 2-4

 

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