Be smart with Super Bowl LV prop bet game plan

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Super Bowl LV is set. The line and total are in place. All we need are the hundreds of props that generate a buzz every year.

You know: Who will be the MVP, will there be a safety or defensive touchdown, will there be a kickoff returned for a touchdown, etc.

Then we have the ones you should stay away from, like the coin toss, the Gatorade bath, will any player take a knee during the national anthem, what outfit will be worn at halftime.

Fans will be allowed at the Super Bowl, with roughly 22,000 expected inside Tampa’s Raymond James Stadium, so there is an outside chance you’ll be able to wager on how many times Tom Brady’s wife, supermodel Gisele Bundchen, will be shown during the broadcast.

Don’t do it. Really.

Remember, money you don’t lose on ridiculous 50/50 wagers you cannot efficiently handicap is just as sweet as money won. I’ve never understood the attraction of the coin flip, as you’re simply helping to fund the sports book’s juice before the game gets started. If you’re attending a party, find a buddy and bet with him or her how the coin will land and save yourself the vig.

Which color the Gatorade will be? Come on everyone, now you’re limiting yourself even further, beyond the 50/50 chance, with so many colors to choose from. Imagine the traditional green and orange, plus red or blue. Now you’re laying the vig for a 1-in-4 chance? You really want to lay juice to the man for a 25% shot?

Silly. Just give me the money via Venmo.

Invest your money on props you can actually spend time handicapping, like whether or not either team will score on its opening drive.

Need some Kansas City numbers on its opening drives this season? I’ve got your back. The Chiefs have punted eight times, scored six touchdowns, kicked three field goals, and been intercepted once. They’ve averaged 49.4 yards per opening drive, while they’ve averaged 7.6 plays per opening drive.

Kansas City has been less than spectacular over its past seven games on its opening drive, punting four times, scoring two TDs, and being intercepted once.

Need some Tampa Bay numbers on its opening drives this season? Look no further.

The Buccaneers have punted nine times, scored six touchdowns, kicked three field goals, and have fumbled the ball away once. The Bucs have scored on three of their last four opening drives, including a touchdown last week at Green Bay.

Considering this one is on their own stadium, let’s go further, as the Bucs have been a bit disappointing on their opening drive in Tampa, with six punts and two touchdowns.

Let me add in that Tampa Bay’s defense ranks sixth in the league in allowing teams to end drives with a score just 33.7% of the time, and Kansas City’s stop unit ranking ninth in allowing the opposition to score on 36.1% of their drives.

Three handicapped prop bets staring you in the face right there, with the “NO” on the game’s opening drive ending in a score, and on each team’s opening drive ending with a score.

How about the sack prop?

Tampa Bay’s defense was tied for fourth during the regular season with 48 sacks, an average of 3.0 per game. The Bucs registered seven sacks in their three playoff games, so in 19 games that’s 55 sacks, or an average of 2.89 per contest. Patrick Mahomes has been sacked 24 times in 18 games, an average of 1.3 times per contest.

Kansas City’s defense had the 14th-fewest sacks during the regular season with 32, while it registered five more during the playoffs, a total of 37 and an average of 2.05 per game. Tom Brady has been sacked 26 times in 19 games, an average of 1.3 times per contest.

Most sack props are over/under 2.5, or the combined sacks prop for two teams is generally over/under 4.5. Based on those proposed numbers, I would play Tampa Bay Over 2.5 sacks, and would leave the total number alone, as I’m not sure the Chiefs can get to Brady.

Finally, with quarterbacks like Mahomes and Brady, and athletic secondaries that have contributed to the defensive units that have contributed to their teams’ success, it’s never a bad idea to play the “YES” on the defensive touchdown prop.

Just stay away from Gatorade. Too much sugar, too many carbs, and far too many suckers.

Last week: 1-1

Season: 55-54-1

About the Author

W.G. Ramirez

W.G. Ramirez is a 32-year veteran covering sports in Southern Nevada, and resident of 46 years. He is a freelance reporter in Las Vegas and the Southern Nevada correspondent for The Associated Press.

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