Bears vs. Patriots Odds & Prediction: The Belichick Chase Continues

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The Chicago Bears are scheduled to play the New England Patriots on Monday night to close out play in Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.

The line opened last week with the Patriots as a 6-point favorite. The number is up to -8.5, per odds at several sportsbooks, including DraftKings, FanDuel, and PointsBet.  New England is available for -8 at BetMGM as of Monday morning.

Let’s take a look at our Bears vs. Patriots odds on Monday Night Football, as well as a prediction.

MNF Odds: Point Spread, Moneyline, Total

Here are Monday Night Football odds from around the sports betting marketplace.

CHI Bears vs NE Patriots Odds NFL Odds

NFL · Mon (10/24) @ 8:16pm ET

CHI Bears at NE Patriots
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

Bet Bears vs. Patriots at DraftKings: Up to $1,250 Bonus

Bears-Patriots Features Bill Belichick Chasing History on SNF

Patriots coach Bill Belichick, who just tied George Halas for the second-most wins in NFL history (324), will be matching wits with Bears rookie boss Matt Eberflus (2 wins), whose team is on a three-game losing streak.

Over the past three seasons, Belichick is 5-1 against rookie bosses (4-2 against the spread), but that straight-up loss was in Week 1 this year in Miami when facing the Dolphins’ Mike McDaniel. The Dolphins won 20-7 as a 3-point choice.

The last time Belichick lost at home to a rookie coach was three years ago when Miami and Brian Flores beat NE 27-24 as a 17-point underdog, matching the biggest upset by any team over the past four seasons.

One of the question marks for this game is whether New England second-year starting quarterback Mac Jones will be available to play — or start — after missing the past three games with a high ankle sprain. He is listed as questionable but expects to be available, according to ESPN.

But another question is whether the Patriots (3-3 SU/3-2-1 ATS) would even want him to play considering how well rookie Bailey Zappe, a fourth-round pick out of Western Kentucky, has performed since taking over behind center midway in the team’s overtime loss at Green Bay in Week 4.

In his two starts, he has guided the team to resounding wins over Detroit 29-0 and then at Cleveland 38-15 as a 2.5-point underdog.

New England QBs Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe are featured in our Bears vs. Patriots odds & prediction. (Winslow Townson/AP Images for Panini)

He has a passer rating of 111.4 with four TDs and one INT. If he had thrown 14 more passes this season to be a qualifying QB, he’d be No. 1 in the rankings. Jones, meanwhile, stands 31st (76.2) with two touchdown passes and five interceptions. But that’s one spot ahead of Chicago’s Justin Fields.

The Bears (2-4 SU/2-3-1 ATS) would seem to have a scheduling advantage here by virtue of an extended break after their oh-so-close 12-7 home loss to Washington last Thursday night. But this season, teams are 3-7 SU/4-6 ATS after such a rest. That’s the same mark teams had last year entering Week 7.

Elsewhere on the injury front, Patriots RB Damien Harris, the team’s leading rusher last year with 15 TDs, is expected to miss his second straight game with a hamstring issue.

But Rhamondre Stevenson (5.1 a carry) has filled in well, including his 161-yard outing vs. Detroit, tying for the third most by anyone in a game this year.  He’ll be going against a Bears defense that’s allowing 163 ground yards a game. That’s the fourth most in the league and the crummiest performance by a Chicago unit since 1973, the last year of LB Dick Butkus’ Hall of Fame career.

As for Chicago and its offense, it rides behind a ground game that’s been the second most productive in the league at 170.8 yards a game. High-fives to RB Khalil Herbert for averaging 6.4 yards on 63 carries. Fields chips in with 54 rushes and a 5.2 norm when not throwing incompletions (he ranks last in completion percentage at 54.8).

How bad is that passing game? Chicago is netting only 118.6 yards a game, the worst for any team in 17 years.

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Bears vs. Patriots MNF Prediction

The Patriots certainly have an edge on offense, especially through the air. The return of WR Jakobi Meyers from an early-season knee issue has been key. Over the past two games, teaming with Zappe, he’s caught 11-of-12 targeted throws for an average of 15.8 yards a reception. Plus the RBs should find holes in the porous Chicago run defense.

And Belichick certainly warrants a big edge in his attempt to bamboozle Eberflus and Fields, especially with a pass defense that has allowed the sixth-lowest completion percentage.

And then there’s this: Although there haven’t been any headlines about Fields not playing because of a (non-passing) shoulder injury he said he re-aggravated last Thursday, that could result in him being not so active in the run game.

Prediction: Patriots 28, Bears 10

Also read: NFL Week 7 betting picks and predictions | NFL Week 7 player props and anytime TD scorer bets

About the Author
Bob Christ

Bob Christ

Bob Christ, based in New Mexico, has been a gaming writer (primarily the NFL) for almost four decades, with his work appearing in publications/websites across North America. He's a big fan of the Arkansas Razorbacks, Philadelphia's Eagles and Phillies, and inexplicably the NHL's Winnipeg Jets.

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