Bears vs. Patriots Odds & Prediction: The Belichick Chase Continues

The Chicago Bears are scheduled to play the New England Patriots on Monday night to close out play in Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.

The line opened last week with the Patriots as a 6-point favorite. The number is up to -8.5, per odds at several sportsbooks, including DraftKings, FanDuel, and PointsBet.  New England is available for -8 at BetMGM as of Monday morning.

Let’s take a look at our Bears vs. Patriots odds on Monday Night Football, as well as a prediction.

Patriots coach Bill Belichick, who just tied George Halas for the second-most wins in NFL history (324), will be matching wits with Bears rookie boss Matt Eberflus (2 wins), whose team is on a three-game losing streak.

Over the past three seasons, Belichick is 5-1 against rookie bosses (4-2 against the spread), but that straight-up loss was in Week 1 this year in Miami when facing the Dolphins’ Mike McDaniel. The Dolphins won 20-7 as a 3-point choice.

The last time Belichick lost at home to a rookie coach was three years ago when Miami and Brian Flores beat NE 27-24 as a 17-point underdog, matching the biggest upset by any team over the past four seasons.

One of the question marks for this game is whether New England second-year starting quarterback Mac Jones will be available to play — or start — after missing the past three games with a high ankle sprain. He is listed as questionable but expects to be available, according to ESPN.

But another question is whether the Patriots (3-3 SU/3-2-1 ATS) would even want him to play considering how well rookie Bailey Zappe, a fourth-round pick out of Western Kentucky, has performed since taking over behind center midway in the team’s overtime loss at Green Bay in Week 4.

In his two starts, he has guided the team to resounding wins over Detroit 29-0 and then at Cleveland 38-15 as a 2.5-point underdog.

He has a passer rating of 111.4 with four TDs and one INT. If he had thrown 14 more passes this season to be a qualifying QB, he’d be No. 1 in the rankings. Jones, meanwhile, stands 31st (76.2) with two touchdown passes and five interceptions. But that’s one spot ahead of Chicago’s Justin Fields.

The Bears (2-4 SU/2-3-1 ATS) would seem to have a scheduling advantage here by virtue of an extended break after their oh-so-close 12-7 home loss to Washington last Thursday night. But this season, teams are 3-7 SU/4-6 ATS after such a rest. That’s the same mark teams had last year entering Week 7.

Elsewhere on the injury front, Patriots RB Damien Harris, the team’s leading rusher last year with 15 TDs, is expected to miss his second straight game with a hamstring issue.

But Rhamondre Stevenson (5.1 a carry) has filled in well, including his 161-yard outing vs. Detroit, tying for the third most by anyone in a game this year.  He’ll be going against a Bears defense that’s allowing 163 ground yards a game. That’s the fourth most in the league and the crummiest performance by a Chicago unit since 1973, the last year of LB Dick Butkus’ Hall of Fame career.

As for Chicago and its offense, it rides behind a ground game that’s been the second most productive in the league at 170.8 yards a game. High-fives to RB Khalil Herbert for averaging 6.4 yards on 63 carries. Fields chips in with 54 rushes and a 5.2 norm when not throwing incompletions (he ranks last in completion percentage at 54.8).

How bad is that passing game? Chicago is netting only 118.6 yards a game, the worst for any team in 17 years.