SuperBook USA and FanDuel offer bettors the lowest theoretical hold on March Madness futures odds heading into the Sweet 16, according to analysis of nine sportsbooks performed Monday. This means the SuperBook and FanDuel expect to make the least from their bettors on a percentage basis in this particular market. That’s good news for bettors, since a greater percentage of the the handle is expected to be returned to them.
Circa Sports and Caesars Sportsbook are third and fourth, respectively, in terms of lowest theoretical hold in 2022 NCAA Tournament futures, both coming in at under 20%.
| Theoretical Hold on 2022 March Madness Odds | |
|---|---|
| Westgate SuperBook | 15.92% |
| FanDuel | 16.11% |
| Circa | 19.00% |
| Caesars | 19.29% |
BetMGM| 20.27% |
|
| PointsBet | 20.90% |
| DraftKings | 23.21% |
| BetRivers | 26.42% |
| Unibet | 26.42% |
Low hold doesn’t mean the Westgate SuperBook and FanDuel have the best prices on every team. It just means that overall, their March Madness futures odds are more generous than sportsbooks with higher holds.
Shopping For The Best March Madness Odds
Theoretical hold is the industry term for the percentage of a betting pool (or market) a sportsbook believes it will win from its bettors. If a sportsbook has a low theoretical hold, then it expects to make less money from its bettors, meaning a greater share of the handle is returned to winning players.
Intuitively, the opposite is true, too. Higher theoretical holds translate to worse odds for bettors. If a sportsbook expects to win more of a bettor’s money, then that book’s odds are less favorable to the customer.
But, while SuperBook USA and FanDuel have the lowest holds in the NCAA Tournament futures market, of course bettors should shop around for the best prices for their wagers.
For example, the 18-to-1 odds on UCLA to win the championship offered at BetMGM, BetRivers, and UniBet are the best on the market. Also, it is more advantageous for a bettor with FanDuel and DraftKings accounts to place a Villanova bet at the latter, despite the former’s lower overall hold.
#MarchMadness heads into its second weekend and we wanted to examine the current future odds@GerlacherC tells you which sportbooks offer bettors the lowest theoretical hold heading into the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament
➡️: https://t.co/UF3KtcCEuN#NCAATournament #CBBPicks pic.twitter.com/WiNtCczldS
— GamingToday (@GamingTodayNews) March 21, 2022
This chart details the 16 remaining teams’ futures odds across nine sportsbooks, as well as each books’ theoretical hold percentages. The best odds offered for each team are in bold. You may also view the chart here.
| SuperBook | FanDuel | Circa | Caesars | BetMGM | PointsBet | DraftKings | BetRivers | Unibet | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzaga | +200 | +200 | +244 | +225 | +230 | +225 | +180 | +200 | +200 |
| Kansas | +450 | +500 | +500 | +475 | +450 | +500 | +400 | +400 | +400 |
| Arizona | +600 | +500 | +633 | +500 | +500 | +500 | +550 | +500 | +500 |
| Purdue | +1,000 | +900 | +725 | +1,000 | +850 | +900 | +850 | +900 | +900 |
| Houston | +1,200 | +1,200 | +1,150 | +1,000 | +900 | +1,000 | +1,000 | +800 | +800 |
| Texas Tech | +1,600 | +1,800 | +1,700 | +1,300 | +1,600 | +1,200 | +1,200 | +1,200 | +1,200 |
| UCLA | +1,200 | +1,600 | +1,100 | +1,600 | +1,800 | +1,700 | +1,300 | +1,800 | +1,800 |
| Villanova | +1,400 | +1,200 | +1,350 | +1,200 | +1,400 | +1,200 | +1,400 | +1,000 | +1,000 |
| Duke | +1,800 | +1,600 | +1,700 | +1,300 | +1,100 | +1,200 | +1,500 | +1,000 | +1,000 |
| North Carolina | +3,000 | +3,000 | +2,200 | +2,200 | +3,000 | +2,000 | +2,200 | +2,000 | +2,000 |
| Michigan | +10,000 | +8,000 | +3,500 | +5,000 | +3,000 | +5,000 | +6,000 | +5,000 | +5,000 |
| Arkansas | +6,000 | +5,000 | +4,800 | +5,000 | +5,000 | +5,000 | +6,000 | +5,000 | +5,000 |
| Providence | +4,000 | +8,000 | +3,650 | +5,000 | +6,600 | +5,000 | +7,000 | +6,600 | +6,600 |
| Miami FL | +8,000 | +8,000 | +3,900 | +7,500 | +5,000 | +5,000 | +8,000 | +6,600 | +6,600 |
| Iowa State | +10,000 | +10,000 | +3,500 | +10,000 | +8,000 | +6,600 | +10,000 | +6,600 | +6,600 |
| Saint Peters | +30,000 | +40,000 | +20,000 | +20,000 | +20,000 | +20,000 | +20,000 | +20,000 | +20,000 |
| Implied prob. sum | 118.94% | 119.21% | 123.45% | 123.90% | 125.42% | 126.42% | 130.23% | 135.91% | 135.91% |
| Overround | 18.94% | 19.21% | 23.45% | 23.90% | 25.42% | 26.42% | 30.23% | 35.91% | 35.91% |
| Theoretical hold | 15.92% | 16.11% | 19.00% | 19.29% | 20.27% | 20.90% | 23.21% | 26.42% | 26.42% |
Theoretical hold may change from one market to another. Just because one book has the lowest hold for March Madness doesn’t necessarily mean it will for the NFL.
Also, despite theoretical hold percentages, disciplined bettors must learn to shop around sportsbooks for the best odds on their specific picks to discover greater potential profit opportunities.
Also read: Sweet 16 opening betting lines
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