Which Sportsbook Has Best March Madness Odds Ahead Of Sweet 16?

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Despite higher hold percentages, some sportsbooks offer better March Madness odds on UCLA (AP Photo/Craig Mitchelldyer)

SuperBook USA and FanDuel offer bettors the lowest theoretical hold on March Madness futures odds heading into the Sweet 16, according to analysis of nine sportsbooks performed Monday. This means the SuperBook and FanDuel expect to make the least from their bettors on a percentage basis in this particular market. That’s good news for bettors, since a greater percentage of the the handle is expected to be returned to them.

Circa Sports and Caesars Sportsbook are third and fourth, respectively, in terms of lowest theoretical hold in 2022 NCAA Tournament futures, both coming in at under 20%.

 Theoretical Hold on 2022 March Madness Odds
Westgate SuperBook15.92%
FanDuel16.11%
Circa19.00%
Caesars19.29%
BetMGM20.27%
PointsBet20.90%
DraftKings23.21%
BetRivers26.42%
Unibet26.42%

Low hold doesn’t mean the Westgate SuperBook and FanDuel have the best prices on every team. It just means that overall, their March Madness futures odds are more generous than sportsbooks with higher holds.

Shopping For The Best March Madness Odds    

Theoretical hold is the industry term for the percentage of a betting pool (or market) a sportsbook believes it will win from its bettors. If a sportsbook has a low theoretical hold, then it expects to make less money from its bettors, meaning a greater share of the handle is returned to winning players.

Intuitively, the opposite is true, too. Higher theoretical holds translate to worse odds for bettors. If a sportsbook expects to win more of a bettor’s money, then that book’s odds are less favorable to the customer. 

But, while SuperBook USA and FanDuel have the lowest holds in the NCAA Tournament futures market, of course bettors should shop around for the best prices for their wagers.

For example, the 18-to-1 odds on UCLA to win the championship offered at BetMGM, BetRivers, and UniBet are the best on the market. Also, it is more advantageous for a bettor with FanDuel and DraftKings accounts to place a Villanova bet at the latter, despite the former’s lower overall hold.

This chart details the 16 remaining teams’ futures odds across nine sportsbooks, as well as each books’ theoretical hold percentages. The best odds offered for each team are in bold. You may also view the chart here.

 SuperBookFanDuelCircaCaesarsBetMGMPointsBetDraftKingsBetRiversUnibet
Gonzaga+200+200+244+225+230+225+180+200+200
Kansas+450+500+500+475+450+500+400+400+400
Arizona+600+500+633+500+500+500+550+500+500
Purdue+1,000+900+725+1,000+850+900+850+900+900
Houston+1,200+1,200+1,150+1,000+900+1,000+1,000+800+800
Texas Tech+1,600+1,800+1,700+1,300+1,600+1,200+1,200+1,200+1,200
UCLA+1,200+1,600+1,100+1,600+1,800+1,700+1,300+1,800+1,800
Villanova+1,400+1,200+1,350+1,200+1,400+1,200+1,400+1,000+1,000
Duke+1,800+1,600+1,700+1,300+1,100+1,200+1,500+1,000+1,000
North Carolina+3,000+3,000+2,200+2,200+3,000+2,000+2,200+2,000+2,000
Michigan+10,000+8,000+3,500+5,000+3,000+5,000+6,000+5,000+5,000
Arkansas+6,000+5,000+4,800+5,000+5,000+5,000+6,000+5,000+5,000
Providence+4,000+8,000+3,650+5,000+6,600+5,000+7,000+6,600+6,600
Miami FL+8,000+8,000+3,900+7,500+5,000+5,000+8,000+6,600+6,600
Iowa State+10,000+10,000+3,500+10,000+8,000+6,600+10,000+6,600+6,600
Saint Peters+30,000+40,000+20,000+20,000+20,000+20,000+20,000+20,000+20,000
Implied prob. sum118.94%119.21%123.45%123.90%125.42%126.42%130.23%135.91%135.91%
Overround18.94%19.21%23.45%23.90%25.42%26.42%30.23%35.91%35.91%
Theoretical hold15.92%16.11%19.00%19.29%20.27%20.90%23.21%26.42%26.42%

Theoretical hold may change from one market to another. Just because one book has the lowest hold for March Madness doesn’t necessarily mean it will for the NFL.

Also, despite theoretical hold percentages, disciplined bettors must learn to shop around sportsbooks for the best odds on their specific picks to discover greater potential profit opportunities. 

Also read: Sweet 16 opening betting lines

About the Author

Christopher Gerlacher

Writer and Contributor
Christopher Gerlacher is a senior author and contributor for Gaming Today. He's a devout Broncos fan, for better or for worse, living in the foothills of Arvada, Colorado.

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