Welcome back to another great night of baseball. While only nine games are on the schedule today, there are still plenty of bets to be made, including player props. Here, we will break down our two favorite MLB player prop bets for Thursday, Sept. 21.
The season is quickly coming to an end, but there are still plenty of bets to be made. These next few weeks will be your last chance this season to have a full slate of games to find the best player props from.
Let’s look at the best MLB player prop picks for Thursday night.
Best MLB Player Prop Bets Today (09/21/2023)
Mike Yastrzemski 1+ RBI
Mike Yastrzemski is having a nice bounce-back year after a very underwhelming 2022 season. He enters tonight with a .244/.334/.463 slash with a 117 wRC+ and a 2.1 fWAR.
While he is not hitting the ball as hard, he still has a 45.2% HardHit% and a 10.4% Barrel%, both of which rank in the top half of the league. He also ranks in the top 30% of the league in average exit velocity, and while his strikeout rate is up, Yastrzemski is in the 90th percentile in chase rate and the 83rd percentile in BB%.
He started the season hot but cooled off in a big way during the Summer months. However, Yastrzemski has been hitting the ball very well this month. Over his last 17 games, Yastrzemski has a slash of .286/.390/.531 with a .391 wOBA and a 151 wRC+.
Although he is facing a starter in Emmet Sheehan, who is due for some significant positive regression, he has given up a lot of hard contact in his rookie season. With the way Yastrzemski is swinging the bat, he should be in a good spot to knock one in tonight, especially if the offense around him continues to get on base.
Josh Naylor Over Doubles
The Cleveland Guardians have one of the worst offenses in baseball this season. They rank in the league’s bottom half in SLG, OBP, wRC+, fWAR, HRs, runs, and RBI. Luckily, this lineup still has a few bright spots, including Josh Naylor, who is having a massive breakout season.
Although he missed a few weeks with an oblique injury, Naylor is still slashing .311/.351/.501 with a 129 wRC+ and a 2.4 fWAR. Naylor has only played 112 games but still ranks in the top 10 in the American League in RBI (93).
He is not hitting the ball as hard since returning from injury earlier this month, but he still has a slash of .344/.379/.508 with a 139 wRC+ in 16 games. Naylor also has six extra-base hits since his return, including four doubles.
It also helps that this game is in Cleveland, where Naylor has smoked the ball this season. In 53 games at Progressive Field, Naylor has 10 doubles and a slash of .320/.355/.475. While tonight will be a tough matchup against a surging Grayson Rodriguez and Baltimore’s elite bullpen, Naylor hits the ball very well against righties, and at this price, it is well worth a play for Naylor to hit a double tonight.
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