With FCS teams playing right now, college football is going to be played for most of a calendar year. But the FCS does not seem to be garnering much attention. Could it be because fans are too busy trying to figure out who will win next season’s college football championship?
Maybe, but shouldn’t the answer be obvious?
In the relatively new College Football Playoffs Era (since 2014), Alabama and Clemson have won five titles. Three of the title games were between them, even. Oklahoma and Ohio State are often in the conversation, too.
All four had great teams last season and should have great teams next season, too— which explains why their odds of winning the title next season are as good as they are:
| College Football National Championship Odds | BetMGM | PointsBet | DraftKings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | +300 | +275 | +300 |
| Clemson | +350 | +400 | +350 |
| Ohio State | +500 | +500 | +400 |
| Oklahoma | +700 | +800 | +800 |
Three of those four will have new starting quarterbacks next season. Alabama has to find a few new offensive linemen. Clemson and Ohio State will have some work to do on their offensive lines. The Buckeyes will have a lot of work to do on the defensive side of the ball, too.
But all three have proven that they can do one thing year in and year out—reload. There is no reason to think they will not do so again. If you want to put your money down on one of those four teams, no one is going to tell you it is a mistake.
But if the conversation ends with them, what are we going to talk about until next fall?
Next Season’s 2022 College Football Championship Longshots
Since 2001, four national champions began the season with odds of +2500 or greater. So, while longshots do not win it all very often, they do emerge from time to time.
It is just a matter of the right team seeing a few guys take their game to the next level, new guys stepping up, and getting a few fortunate bounces/calls along the way. That, and nothing going wrong for an entire season (i.e., injuries, suspensions, etc.).
LSU was that team two years ago, and there are a few teams with the potential to fit that description next season:
| College Football National Championship Odds | BetMGM | PointsBet | DraftKings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | +800 | +600 | +1000 |
| Texas A&M | +2500 | +5000 | +3300 |
| LSU | +3500 | +4000 | +2500 |
| Wisconsin | +3500 | +5000 | +10000 |
| Miami | +4000 | +8000 | +5000 |
| Iowa State | +4000 | +3000 | +3300 |
Some would say Georgia is not much of a longshot because they tend to give Alabama a run for their money every year. But the Bulldogs struggled last season until they finally settled on JT Daniels at quarterback. There are a lot of holes on the defensive side of the ball, though.
Many thought Texas A&M should have had a shot last season over Notre Dame. With the team the Aggies have coming back, there is a lot of hope in College Station. While the defense is in great shape, the offensive line has to be rebuilt and they need a new starting quarterback.
LSU struggled for much of the season after losing most of the championship team’s starters to the NFL and graduation. But they will have 19 returning starters off a team that played some great football in the second half of the season last year.
As for the other three, Wisconsin will have another championship-caliber defense. If Graham Mertz does not pick up his game, though, the Badgers will fall out of contention quickly. Iowa State has a lot of talent coming back, but Brock Purdy will need to have a better, more consistent season for the Cyclones to be contenders.
Miami was an interesting team to watch last season until they played Clemson. With the talent coming back they should be as good if not better this season. Fans will not have to wait long to see if Miami is going to be a contender, though.
They start the season against Alabama.
The Really Long, Long Shots
It is not unusual to see a massive underdog shock the college football world with a surprise win over a heavily favored team. But rising up and overcoming the odds for a single game is one thing. Doing it for an entire season is another.
It does happen, though. The 2010 Auburn Tigers are the biggest longshot to win it all in the last two decades (+5000 preseason odds). So, while it may seem highly improbable, it does happen. If everything goes right for one of the following teams, a longshot might win again:
| College Football National Championship Odds | BetMGM | PointsBet | DraftKings |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | +5000 | +6600 | +4000 |
| Texas | +5000 | +10000 | +3300 |
| Auburn | +8000 | +15000 | +5000 |
| Ole Miss | +10000 | +20000 | +15000 |
| Indiana | +10000 | +20000 | +10000 |
| Cincinnati | +15000 | +10000 | +5000 |
For any of those teams to have a legitimate shot, a lot of things will have to go their way. North Carolina may have the best quarterback in college football next season in Sam Howell. But the Tar Heels will have to be much better on defense for them to have any kind of shot.
Ole Miss has the right kind of offense, but their defense was terrible last season. Indiana will be fun to talk about if they can pick up where they left off, but contenders? If they were to win the national championship, they would need the kind of season Disney would want to make a movie about.
Should Cincinnati pick up where it left off, the Bearcats could be in the conversation again. But if they are going to become the first Group of Five team to make the playoffs, they will have to dominate every team they face—especially Notre Dame and Indiana.
Betting Recommendation for the 2022 CFB Championship
If you want to play it safe, go with either Alabama or Clemson. But if you are willing to roll the dice a little, go with either Texas A&M or LSU. Should you be willing to roll the dice and shoot for the stars, give North Carolina, Ole Miss, and Cincinnati some consideration.
About the Author
