At risk of ridicule, I seem to write a different version of this story every year. The theme: The Super Bowl coin toss is the best bet most bettors can make on Sunday.
While gambling on a literal 50/50 proposition may sound irrational, somewhere in the range of 98% of bettors have a 50/50 chance to win any bet they make — a virtual flip of a coin. Admittedly — and rather sadly – I am squarely in that group, most likely along with you. Sorry, but it’s true.
But here’s the thing – in most of our 50/50 wagers, we’re laying -110 juice, meaning we have to risk $110 to win $100. If we shop around various sportsbooks, though, we can find less expensive vigs on the coin flip. Sometimes, far less expensive.
No, even at reduced juice, a bet on whether the coin lands heads or tails before the Chiefs and Eagles kick off is not +EV (positive expected value). It’s just less -EV than your bet on either KC +1.5 or Philly -1.5.
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Super Bowl Coin Toss Odds
If you’re pooh-poohing this article, don’t take my word for it. Here’s a tweet from legendary oddsmaker Roxy Roxborough, whom I’ve liberally borrowed this coin flip betting concept over the past several years.
Coin toss prop holding steady at @LVSuperBook at -102 each side. Thinks it is a stupid bet? Maybe, but most players never ever get a bet at less than 1% hold.
— Roxy Roxborough (@RoxyLasVegas) January 30, 2018
Roxy’s tweet came ahead of Super Bowl 52 between the Eagles and Patriots, won outright by Philly, the 4.5-point underdog, 41-33. More importantly for this piece, the coin toss landed ‘heads’, snapping a four-year trend on ‘tails.’
While $100 bettors who played Pats -4.5 were down $110, they lost just $102 if they headed to the Westgate to play ‘tails’ -102, per Roxy’s suggestion. That’s $8 of less -EV!
This year, the SuperBook is being even more generous with its coin flip pricing.
Very important question… heads or tails? 🪙
Available at @SuperBookNV, @SuperBookAZ, @SuperBookNJ and @SuperBookIA pic.twitter.com/wqvcNw4WIk
— SuperBook Sports (@SuperBookSports) February 2, 2023
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Which Sportsbook Has the Best Coin Flip Odds?
If you’re into betting on the Super Bowl coin flip, DraftKings is your sportsbook, as it’s offering no juice on either side of the bet. This means DraftKings will accept your bet with exactly zero house edge. You may never find an opportunity like this again.
Circa Sports is having its usual fun with coin flip pricing, dealing ‘heads’ -103, ‘tails’ -104.
Not all books are as generous, evidently.
The King of Sportsbooks pic.twitter.com/ixnLgIH1o7
— Mucked Nuts (@MuckedNuts) February 8, 2023
Should You Bet Heads or Tails on Super Bowl Sunday?
If you’re here for a pick – on the game or coin flip – you’re in the wrong place. My 49.9% lifetime percentage against the spread is not nearly good enough to overcome the -110 house edge. You need to hit 52.4% of your bets to do that (again, sorry, you will not).
Still, I’ll throw these out there: I’m on Chiefs +1.5 (-110) and heads (+100).
If you blindly follow one of these, I implore you, take heads +100. It’s a far better bet.
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