Betting the Super Bowl Coin Toss Isn’t as Crazy as it Sounds, Especially at DraftKings’ Odds

GamingToday.com is an independent sports news and information service. GamingToday.com has partnerships with some of the top legal and licensed sportsbook companies in the US. Gaming Today may receive referral compensation from the sportsbook company when you claim a bonus offer or promotion through a link on this site. Although the relationships we have with sportsbook companies may influence the order in which we place companies on the site, all reviews, recommendations, and opinions are wholly our own. They are the recommendations from our authors and contributors who are avid sports fans themselves.

For more information, please read How We Rate Sportsbooks, Privacy Policy, or Contact Us with any concerns you may have.

Gaming Today is licensed and regulated to operate in AZ, CO, CT, DC, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, ME, MI, MS, NJ, NV, NY, OH, ON, PA, TN, VA, VT, WV, and WY.

At risk of ridicule, I seem to write a different version of this story every year. The theme: The Super Bowl coin toss is the best bet most bettors can make on Sunday.

While gambling on a literal 50/50 proposition may sound irrational, somewhere in the range of 98% of bettors have a 50/50 chance to win any bet they make — a virtual flip of a coin. Admittedly — and rather sadly – I am squarely in that group, most likely along with you. Sorry, but it’s true.

But here’s the thing – in most of our 50/50 wagers, we’re laying -110 juice, meaning we have to risk $110 to win $100. If we shop around various sportsbooks, though, we can find less expensive vigs on the coin flip. Sometimes, far less expensive.

No, even at reduced juice, a bet on whether the coin lands heads or tails before the Chiefs and Eagles kick off is not +EV (positive expected value). It’s just less -EV than your bet on either KC +1.5 or Philly -1.5.

Scroll through some props: Jalen Hurts Super Bowl props | Miles Sanders Super Bowl props | Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl props | Travis Kelce Super Bowl propsSuper Bowl rushing props | Super Bowl MVP odds

Super Bowl Coin Toss Odds

If you’re pooh-poohing this article, don’t take my word for it. Here’s a tweet from legendary oddsmaker Roxy Roxborough, whom I’ve liberally borrowed this coin flip betting concept over the past several years.

Roxy’s tweet came ahead of Super Bowl 52 between the Eagles and Patriots, won outright by Philly, the 4.5-point underdog, 41-33. More importantly for this piece, the coin toss landed ‘heads’, snapping a four-year trend on ‘tails.’

While $100 bettors who played Pats -4.5 were down $110, they lost just $102 if they headed to the Westgate to play ‘tails’ -102, per Roxy’s suggestion. That’s $8 of less -EV!

This year, the SuperBook is being even more generous with its coin flip pricing.

https://twitter.com/SuperBookSports/status/1621231483372568576

Play AlongHow to Create Your Own Super Bowl Squares Game | Set Up Your Super Bowl Squares Here

Which Sportsbook Has the Best Coin Flip Odds?

If you’re into betting on the Super Bowl coin flip, DraftKings is your sportsbook, as it’s offering no juice on either side of the bet. This means DraftKings will accept your bet with exactly zero house edge. You may never find an opportunity like this again.

Circa Sports is having its usual fun with coin flip pricing, dealing ‘heads’ -103, ‘tails’ -104.

Not all books are as generous, evidently.

Should You Bet Heads or Tails on Super Bowl Sunday?

If you’re here for a pick – on the game or coin flip – you’re in the wrong place. My 49.9% lifetime percentage against the spread is not nearly good enough to overcome the -110 house edge. You need to hit 52.4% of your bets to do that (again, sorry, you will not).

Still, I’ll throw these out there: I’m on Chiefs +1.5 (-110) and heads (+100).

If you blindly follow one of these, I implore you, take heads +100. It’s a far better bet.

Pick a PromoBest Super Bowl Sportsbook Bonuses

About the Author
Marcus DiNitto

Marcus DiNitto

Managing Editor, News
Marcus DiNitto was news managing editor of Gaming Today. In past roles, he has been managing editor at national sports websites SportsBusiness Daily, Sporting News, and The Linemakers, as well as with licensed sportsbook operator USA Sports Gaming. Marcus graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, earned his MBA from the University of North Carolina-Charlotte, and studied sports and entertainment marketing at New York University.

Get connected with us on Social Media