History repeats itself this time of year.
It seems with each MLB campaign, by All-Star break oddsmakers become sharper and the lines more acute. Over the last decade, we’ve experienced more high-priced favorites, prompting us bettors to go the run line, giving us better prices, but trimming our chances.
As far as Totals are concerned, they too, are tightening up. So be selective, shop around, and don’t be afraid to have less action, but more quality when choosing your plays.
Speaking of quality plays, for the second straight week, I swept the board in GamingToday with my baseball releases. The season record is a healthy 16-6.
Here are this week’s Best Bets (all stats, trends and starting pitchers subject to change).
Wednesday
Dodgers at Cubs: The weather in Chicago is erratic at best. The wind changes from day to day so this is a gutsy play. The forecast is for 70 degrees and cloudy, with winds of 10 mph blowing in. You can’t predict the future but you can calculate the past.
The Dodgers/Cubs rivalry has resulted in a 14 of 17 streaks at Wrigley going below the total and 23-7-1 for the last 31 overall meetings. RH Ross Stripling owns a 6-1, 1.76 record with 78K’s in 66.1 IP.
LH Jon Lester is 8-2, with a 2.28 mark, fanning 69 batters in 83.0 IP. As long as the wind isn’t blowing out – Take UNDER
Astros vs. Rays: Houston is the hottest team in baseball, winning 11 straight with the average margin of victory 3.72 RPG during the streak.
Tampa Bay’s only crime is sharing the AL East with the NY Yankees and Boston Red Sox. The Rays are 18-22, averaging just 3.88 RPG on the road. RH Nathan Eovaldi takes the hill with a 1-2 record and 4.63 ERA.
The 28-year-old is not a power pitcher and does not have the finesse to contend with the Astros’ dangerous lineup (first in Team BA .267, No. 2 in scoring 5.25 RPG).
RH Charlie Morton has been outstanding, 8-1, 2.94 record, with 105 K’s, in 82.2 IP. Tampa Bay is 1-9 in the last 10 on the road, 1-7 vs. the AL West, and 5-12 in the past 17.
Houston is 38-17 at home, 20-6 vs. teams with a losing record, and 38-18 overall. ASTROS -1.5 runs