Big 12 Odds And Betting Preview: Texas Tech-Oklahoma, Texas-Baylor Headline Week 9 Slate

Oklahoma has represented the Big 12 in the College Football Playoff in four of seven seasons. The No. 4 Sooners are shaping up to be a contender for one of the four playoff teams again this year, but a loss would put an end to that.

Oklahoma’s quest for the National Championship continues in Week 9 as large home favorites against Texas Tech (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC). That game is preceded by another key Big 12 matchup, Texas at No. 16 Baylor (12 p.m. ET, ABC), that features a field-goal point spread on oddsboards.

Here’s a look at Saturday’s Big 12 betting card:

Texas Tech (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS)

Despite getting off to a solid start, Texas Tech fired head coach Matt Wells after last weekend’s 25-24 loss to Kansas State. So, along with facing one of the best teams in college football this week, the Red Raiders have to deal with the sudden loss of their coach.

Texas Tech will be hard-pressed to upset the Sooners. Its offense is decent (438 yards and 34.2 points a game; No. 37 and No. 31), but the defense struggles in just about every facet of the game.

Opponents have scored an average of 30.6 points a game against Tech, with Texas hanging 70 on them and TCU 52. It is not hard to imagine Oklahoma having a similar performance against the Raiders.

Oklahoma (8-0 SU, 3-5 ATS)

The year began with a Heisman candidate at quarterback, Spencer Rattler. But he got benched despite not losing a game, and now they have another Heisman candidate at quarterback, Caleb Williams. While Williams made a great first impression by overcoming a 21-point deficit to beat Texas 55-48, he struggled to get the offense on track against a dreadful Kansas team last week.

The Red Raiders defense will probably not slow him down, but if it does, you have to wonder if Lincoln Riley would consider handing the offense back over to Rattler.

The Sooners defense is what you would expect a Big 12 defense to be — suspect (382.1 total yards and 24.6 points per game allowed; sixth in the Big 12). It is good enough to slow Texas Tech’s offense down, however.

But if the Oklahoma offense gets going, it will probably not matter how well their defense plays.  The Sooners can simply outscore the Raiders.

Betting Analysis

The Sooners and Red Raiders are not on the same competitive level, but teams often play inspired ball after a head coach is fired mid-season. While it would take a letdown of epic proportions for Oklahoma to lose this game, if the Sooners offense struggles as it did last week, this game might be competitive, and the Red Raiders could cover the spread.

Texas (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS) vs. Baylor (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS)

After losing its last two and falling to 4-3 on the season, Texas is in desperate need of a win this week against the Bears. The passing game has been explosive at times with Casey Thompson at quarterback, but inconsistent. Head coach Steve Sarkisian may try to gain control of the game by handing the ball off early and often to his superstar running back, Bijan Robinson.

Doing so would take pressure off Casey Thompson and keep the Longhorns’ lackluster defense (433.1 yards and 29.6 points per game allowed; No. 106 and No. 94 in the country) off the field.

But Texas will have its hands full against a Baylor team that does everything well. The offense is productive (471.7 total yards and 38.3 points a game) and balanced (233.4 yards passing and 238.3 yards rushing per game). On the defensive side of the ball, the Bears have been stingy with points (18.7 per game allowed) and yards (333.6 per game allowed).

However, while the run defense has held teams to a respectable 134.7 yards per game, it has struggled to slow down the better run teams it has faced (Iowa State, Oklahoma State). So, this game could be interesting (and high scoring) if Texas gets the run game rolling and keeps the Baylor offense off the field. 

Iowa State (5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS) vs. West Virginia (3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS)

The Cyclones are at their best when they get running back Breece Hall on track early. But as they proved last week against Oklahoma State, they can win with Brock Purdy and the passing game, too. West Virginia is one of the better run defenses in the conference (third in the Big 12), so they may lean on Purdy to win the game.

West Virginia may find it hard to generate offense against an Iowa State defense that ranks third in the nation in total yards allowed.

TCU (3-4 SU, 1-5-1 ATS) vs. Kansas State (4-3 SU, 3-3-1 ATS)

Generating offense is not a problem for the Horned Frogs; they average 450.4 yards per game (216 rushing and 234 passing). But TCU has a significant problem — its defense cannot stop anyone. While the offense generates 450.4 yards/game, the defense gives up 451.1.

Kansas State is not a strong offensive team, and its defense will have difficulty slowing down TCU. But the key to victory is clear— run the ball and keep the TCU offense on the sideline.

Kansas (1-6 SU, 1-6 ATS) vs. Oklahoma State (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS)

Kansas played probably its best offensive game of the season last week against Oklahoma — and still lost by 12. It will be hard to find similar success against an Oklahoma State defense that is one of the best in the conference. While the Cowboys defense is not as explosive as Oklahoma’s, it is certainly good enough to take advantage of Kansas’s dreadful defensive unit.