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This will be a huge week in Vegas with Super Bowl LII being played on Sunday. There will be parties, big bettors and small punters taking shots on the hundreds of prop bets. They are like reading a book with Propmaster Jay Kornegay posting over 400, around 30 pages, at the Westgate.

There has been a big bettor going all over Las Vegas plunging on the Eagles for as much as the books will take. It has been in the millions. The books have his name because now when big bets are made they need to fill out all the paper work.

Back in the good ole days, there was no paperwork and most of the big bettors who just showed up we never really knew who they were. The one guy I do remember would show up every Monday for a long time, just on Mondays to bet the TV game. He would always come into the Stardust carrying an Albertson’s supermarket plastic bag filled with hundred dollar bills and would bet whatever he could get down.

The ticket writers, cashiers and even the board man wanted him to win because when he did he left a nice crisp hundred for each of them. They kept their own tips back then.

We affectionately gave him the moniker “the mad plunger.” We never really ever knew what his real name was and after a while he just disappeared, never to be seen again. Those characters are long gone but life goes on, the big bets come in and the people are checked for ID.

Super LII logic

After a week of cyphering through all the garbage and hearing the talking heads plus this big bettor going from joint to joint betting on the Eagles, it all comes down to several things with the most important one being luck.

The team that makes the fewest mistakes will probably win, but how do you handicap that factor? The team the gets the calls will probably win. The Pats have the experience with Brady and Belichick. This will be Mr. Hoodie’s 39th postseason game. Brady has four MVP Super Bowl trophies, which is more than my favorite QB of all time Joe Montana. He has led his team to five Super Bowl wins. Only Bart Starr can rival that record as he won two Super Bowls along with five NFL championships with the Packers.

Will the -4.5 pointspread be a factor for cashing a ticket? We say, no! The straight up winner of the Super Bowl has gone an amazing 43-6-2 ATS. Four of the last five have gone Over the total.

Now this will put a thought in your betting mind. When a QB (Brady) wins the NFL MVP award he has gone 0-7 straight up and against the pointspread since 2002.

How does defense come into play in the Super Bowl compared to offense? Well, ask some players from the Pittsburgh Steelers days when they were called the Steel Curtain. In the 51 Super Bowls the team with the best defense won 42. The Eagles look to have the best defense.

In this year’s playoff games leading up to the Super Bowl the underdogs have gone 9-1 ATS with a tie in there depending on the number you got in the Vikings/Saints game.

Brady is the best at the end of the game so the Pats will be my play in the fourth quarter and also the second half if they are losing the game. I do like the Eagles in the first quarter +.5 as it could be tied or Philly having the lead. Also remember those Brady props, Tom “Terrific” has 36 career postseason starts compared to Nick Foles with three.

The bottom line is don’t get caught up in all the hype. This is just another game with the exception of Justin Timberlake at half time. I will miss that; sorry, Justin.

We need to build up a little bankroll before heading over to see JK at Westgate so let’s see if we can get a basketball and horse winner. On Wednesday, Louisville travels to Virginia to take on Tony Bennett’s Cavaliers, not the same Tony Bennett that was at the Grammy’s. The Cardinals find a good spot here even with all the distractions of stripgate. The Cardinals are looking for some revenge from losing both games to the Cavs last year, including a 16-point loss on the road. Virginia is coming off a big win vs. Duke as a 5-point road dog; we will be taking the points.

Horse Sense

Santa Anita, Thursday, Race 7, No. 7 – The Tulip. This horse exits our horses to watch list off a fast closing fourth in his first out in the States after shipping in from Ireland for Paddy Gallagher. This 5yo mare gets a little longer today and we love Van Dyke getting the ride. Gallagher put a big five furlong work into this mare on Jan. 22. All systems are go here.

Pick up that book of props. You could be walking around lucky and not even know it.

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