Bills vs. Patriots TNF Player Props & TD Scorer Bets: Diggs Scores on Belichick’s Defense

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The NFL Week 13 schedule kicks off with an AFC East showdown between the Buffalo Bills (8-3) and New England Patriots (6-5) on Thursday Night Football.

The Bills are coming off back-to-back wins at Detroit, including a 28-25 victory over the New York Giants on Thanksgiving. The Pats, on the other hand, lost their respective Turkey Day matchup against the Minnesota Vikings by a touchdown.

Sportsbooks are offering a multitude of player props and anytime touchdown scorer bets for Thursday night’s contest, and we’re handing out the best ones you should invest your dollars in.

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Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots TNF Odds

The Bills – priced between -190 and -208 on the moneyline as of Wednesday morning – are 3.5- to 4-point road favorites against their divisional foes. New England’s odds range from +155 and +175 for an outright win.

Buffalo is 1-4 against the spread in its last five games, though that’s not stopping DraftKings bettors from backing them against the Pats. The road team is receiving 77% of spread tickets and 83% of moneyline tickets in early wagering.

The Over/Under total for this divisional clash is pegged at 43.5 points on legal US sports betting apps.

Player Props, TD Scorer Bets for TNF Week 13

Stefon Diggs Anytime TD Scorer (+120, FanDuel)

The Bills’ top wideout is also one of the best scorers in the league. He has the third most receiving touchdowns this year with nine and has found the end zone in five of his last two games, including each of his last two.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) celebrates his touchdown pass to Stefon Diggs (14) against the New England Patriots in the 2021 NFL season. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

Diggs’ skills both as a route runner and a deep threat have made him virtually unguardable, no matter where the offense is on the field. He has three touchdowns within five yards from the goal line, four between 14 and 26 yards, and three of 46-plus yards.

Between Josh Allen as a runner and Gabe Davis as a fellow receiver, there’s just too many weapons for the Pats to pay attention to, which should leave Diggs with open lanes leading to the end zone.

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Josh Allen Longest Completion Under 38.5 Yards (-110, DraftKings & BetMGM)

As dynamic and explosive as Allen has been, he’s also failed to reach this longest completion prop number more often than not this season (seven out of 11 games). He also hasn’t completed a pass of 39-plus yards in the past three games.

The Patriots do a remarkable job at defusing the amount of damage they face through the air at home, allowing the fewest yards per pass attempt (4.8) and passing yards per game (130.2) at Gillette Stadium.

Also read: Bills vs. Patriots Odds & Prediction

Josh Allen Over 0.5 Interceptions (-140, DraftKings)

Allen is a dual-threat machine, but machines often have glitches. For him, his main glitch has been tossing the ball away.

Allen has thrown at least one pick in seven of his 11 outings and is tied with Texans quarterback Davis Mills for the most picks in the NFL with 11. What’s more, he has more games with two interceptions (four) than games with zero interceptions (three).

New England has picked off an opposing quarterback in a league-leading 81.8% of its games, thanks to defensive mastermind Bill Belichick. He’s well aware of Allen’s turnover bug and will center his defensive game plan around taking the ball away through the air.

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Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime TD Scorer (-115, BetMGM)

Damien Harris will miss Week 13 due to a thigh injury, granting Stevenson his fourth start of the season. He’s averaging a subpar 3.89 yards per carry over those three contests, but at least he’s had a knack for finding the end zone.

Stevenson scored in all three previous starts (four total), with two coming through the air and one coming on the ground. He’s demonstrated he can handle being a dual-threat running back, and he should be a threat to score many different ways against the Bills.

Jakobi Meyers Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (+110, DraftKings)

Meyers has been the Pats’ best receiver this season, leading the offense in targets (62), receiving yards (571), and receiving touchdowns (three).

Buffalo’s defense is great at defending its end zone and limiting points to the opposition, though it is quite weak at preventing opposing offenses from moving the chains. It’s giving up the 19th most yards through the air and the 23rd most receptions, so the matchup seems fairly favorable. 

Meyers has also put in work himself, totaling 52-plus yards receiving in all games but two this season.

Also read: NFL Week 13 Odds

About the Author
Cyrus Eshaghoff

Cyrus Eshaghoff

Sports Betting Writer
Cyrus Eshaghoff is a New York-based sports writer. Whether it's heated debates or uncovering statistical insights, he loves discussing sports. Check out his Twitter account (@CyrusEshaghoff).

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