Bills At Saints Odds, Betting Analysis, Pick: Early Money Pushes Thanksgiving Line Upward

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Bills QB Josh Allen (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire)

The Bills have been bet up from an opening line of -4.5 to as high as -6.5 for their Thanksgiving night visit to the Saints. Buffalo backers could still find -6s on some oddsboards Wednesday around the betting market.

BUF Bills vs NO Saints Odds NFL Odds

NFL · Thu (11/25) @ 8:28pm ET

BUF Bills at NO Saints
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana

Thanksgiving special at DraftKings: Risk-free same game parlay

Buffalo Bills (6-4, 5-5 ATS) at New Orleans Saints (5-5, 5-5 ATS)

Betting line (BetMGM): Bills -6, 45.5

The skinny: The Saints will be aiming to avoid their first four-game losing streak in six seasons when the troubled Bills head to town having lost two of three.

Facts: New Orleans has gone 0-3 since starting QB Jameis Winston got hurt in the team’s victory over Tampa Bay in Week 8. Yet, when standout QB Drew Brees was sidelined for nine games during the 2019-20 seasons, the Saints went 8-1. Go figure.

Buffalo was gored by Indy’s Jonathan Taylor for 185 rush yards last week, losing 41-15 as a 7-point favorite. New Orleans’ top two RBs — Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram — however, are dealing with knee injuries and sat out Tuesday drills. And both tackles who missed last week’s 40-29 loss in Philly are listed as questionable.

In their last meeting, in 2017, New Orleans walloped the Bills in Buffalo 47-10, their worst home loss the past 14 seasons. And it got worse for the Bills. The next week they gave QB Nathan Peterman his first start at QB. He threw five first-half INTs on only 14 passes before being yanked at halftime in a 54-24 road loss to the L.A. Chargers.

Bet TypeSpreads
Open

Bills At Saints Analysis And Pick

The Saints rush defense had been the backbone of the team most of the season, ranking first in ground yards allowed. But that unit was knocked down a couple of pegs last week when the Eagles ran a league season-high 50 times for 242 yards.

The Bills weren’t much better against Indy, giving up 41 points despite entering the game as the league’s first-rated defense. But the unit remains No. 1.

Anyway, what are the chances the Bills have a minus-5 turnover differential a second week in a row and see their foe have a 24-yard edge in average starting field position. Oh, and the Caesars Superdome won’t necessarily be rockin’. The building hasn’t been close to full this season despite box scores listing a sellout each week. And then there’s the tryptophan factor on this night.

Pick: Bills 30, Saints 17

Last week: 7-8 ATS, 11-4 SU
Season total: 78-84-3 (.481) ATS; 100-64-1 (.610) SU

About the Author

Bob Christ

Bob Christ, based in New Mexico, has been a gaming writer (primarily the NFL) for almost four decades, with his work appearing in publications/websites across North America. He's a big fan of the Arkansas Razorbacks, Philadelphia's Eagles and Phillies, and inexplicably the NHL's Winnipeg Jets.

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