Sunday’s nightcap between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs promises to be an instant classic. The budding rivalry between Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes captures the attention of casual viewers and NFL fanatics alike, and DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook have plenty of touchdown scorer and player props on which to wager.
DraftKings (Chiefs -2, -110) and FanDuel (Chiefs -1.5, -114) are painting the picture of a high-scoring affair. Totals at the books are 54.5 and 53.5, respectively. These expectations will remain at the forefront as we consider each book’s prop offerings.
Bills vs. Chiefs QB Props And Touchdown Scorers
Anytime Touchdown +150 (DraftKings) — Standing at 6-foot-5, 237 pounds with uncommon athleticism for the position, Allen is a blend of Ben Roethlisberger and Cam Newton. From a pure ability standpoint, it’s easy to imagine Allen sneaking across the goal line, taking a naked boot to the pylon, or even weaving through the Chiefs defense on a broken play. He continues to be a menace on the ground this season, scoring six touchdowns — he has 31 rushing scores in 61 career games — and averaging 44.9 rushing yards per game this season. The value at DraftKings is enticing considering the multiple avenues Allen can take to pay dirt.
Over/Under 280.5 Passing Yards (-114, FanDuel) — Allen, fresh off a five-touchdown dismantling of the New England Patriots, has been hot. Recent yardage totals may be underwhelming, but it’s important to consider how uncompetitive some of the Bills’ opponents were down the stretch. Teams such as the Panthers, Falcons, and Jets didn’t have the chops to force Allen to shoulder a heavier load. The Bills’ burgeoning ground attack further relieved pressure on Allen. The Chiefs present the type of challenge that will require the Bills to call upon their front line talents, though, namely their $258 million quarterback.
Anytime Touchdown +360 (FD) — Mahomes scored a pair of rushing touchdowns in each of his last four regular seasons. He’s added four more over nine postseason contests. Mahomes isn’t the runner Allen is, but he’s demonstrated an ability to inflict damage in a similar manner. The Bills will dedicate attention to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, and need to respect in-form second-tier pieces such as Jerick McKinnon and Bryon Pringle. It’s reasonable to expect Mahomes to encounter a few golden opportunities to make a big play with his legs.
Over/Under 281.5 (-114, FD) — Mahomes hasn’t been the prolific, unstoppable gunslinger we’ve come to expect. It’s a testament to how otherworldly he is that a 4,839-yard, 37-touchdown season comes across as “ho hum”. We’re not betting on what Mahomes did over the course of 17 regular -season games. Mahomes has reached 282 passing yards in six of nine postseason contests. With the Chiefs priced as short home favorites and a total north of 53, the expectation is we’ll see a healthy amount of scoring and offense. As much as Kansas City may want to instill balance to their attack Sunday, they’re not going to take the ball out of Mahomes’ hands to pile more volume onto Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s plate. The Bills boast the league’s top passing defense — and overall defense for that matter — but it’s reasonable to envision Mahomes going ‘over’.
Over/Under 2.5 Touchdown Passes (+130, DK) — We’ll further recognize how good the Bills defense has been this season. However, the Chiefs are expected to produce enough points to win a high-scoring game. Mahomes threw for three or more touchdown passes seven times during the regular season and has reached that mark in five of nine postseason performances — including last week against the Steelers. At +130, it’s worth rolling the dice on a “vintage” Mahomes showing.
Bills vs. Chiefs RB Props And Touchdown Scorers
Over/Under 84.5 Total Yards (-115, DK) — Singletary has been central to the Bills’ improved ground game, and his versatility — he received five-plus targets five times in 2021 — provides additional opportunities. Bettors should consider the degree to which they expect Allen to dominate the Bills’ offensive efforts. Those who envision 45-plus dropbacks from Allen will want to consider an ‘under’ play at DraftKings. Those bullish about a more balanced game plan and like the ‘over’ on this prop can find 82.5 (-114) at FanDuel.
Anytime Touchdown +120 TD (FD) — Edwards-Helaire (shoulder) returns to the field this week and will likely serve as the Chiefs’ main weapon out of the backfield. He’s not a prolific touchdown scorer, but he demonstrated improved efficiency in that department this season. With Darrel Williams (toe) trending toward an inactive tag, Edwards-Helaire should receive the requisite volume to justify a plus-money wager.
Anytime Touchdown +100 TD (DK, FD) — We may look back upon McKinnon as this year’s surprise postseason performer if his hot streak continues. He served as a legitimate weapon against the Steelers, turning 18 touches into 142 yards and a score. The NFL is a copycat league, and Andy Reid is widely considered an offensive genius. Don’t be surprised if the Chiefs continue to deploy McKinnon as their own “lite” version of Deebo Samuel and Cordarrelle Patterson.
Bills vs. Chiefs WR Props And Touchdown Scorers
Anytime Touchdown +120 (DK, FD) — There’s nothing fancy here. The Bills invested money and draft capital into Diggs for him to show up in spots like this, and nothing about his recent track record suggests the moment will be too big for him. Plus-money for the Bills’ star receiver to deliver the goods makes for a solid bet.
Over 6.5 Receptions (+116, FD) — Securing seven receptions against a quality Chiefs defense is no lock — hence the plus-money odds. However, we’ll revert to his status as the “alpha” receiver in this spot. He earned 26.3 percent of the team’s targets and secured seven-plus grabs in eight games this season. Feeling the ‘under’? Be prepared to lay -154 at FanDuel if you expect Diggs to be held below seven receptions.
Receiving Yards (FD): 40+ (+148) | 50+ (+230) | 60+ (+370) | 70+ (550) — It’s always fun to witness the players who step up throughout a postseason run. Second-year receiver Davis is one such breakout candidate. He averaged eight targets and 51.8 yards over his final four regular-season games. His 15.7 yards per catch average highlights his ability as a big play threat.
Tyreek Hill vs. Travis Kelce
Anytime the Chiefs take the field, eyes are trained on Hill and Kelce as central pieces of the offense. Hill can certainly explode for a gaudy stat-line. However, it’s been Kelce who has been on a much better run of late. Kelce has scored in each of the last four games and gone over 100 yards in two of those contests. Hill, meanwhile, has topped out at 57 receiving yards over that same span. Bettors focusing on these two stud pass-catchers will have plenty to consider between both books’ offerings.
Anytime Touchdown +200 (DK) — Pringle is another unheralded Chief taking advantage of elevated opportunity within the offense. Pringle has averaged 6.5 targets across his last four games, including last week’s win over the Steelers. He totaled four touchdowns over that span, and the chances of another increase with his enhanced offensive involvement. Pringle will be asked to step up whenever the Bills sell out to contain Hill and Kelce.