Here is a close look at Sunday night’s week 5 showdown between AFC powerhouses Buffalo and Kansas City.
Buffalo Bills (3-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-2)
- Time: 8:20 p.m.
- Line: Chiefs by 2.5 (56.5)
The skinny: This is a rematch of last season’s AFC title game in Arrowhead won by KC 38-24 as a 6-point choice.
Facts: Before the Chiefs’ spread-beating 42-30 victory in Philadelphia last week, KC had gone 1-12-1 ATS since their 2020 midseason bye, the only win coming in that playoff game vs. Buffalo. The Bills have had two shutout triumphs already this year, vs. Miami in Week 2 and last Sunday against Houston. That’s one more than the rest of the league teams combined. The last team to have three in a season was Baltimore in 2017. Buffalo QB Josh Allen, runner-up for MVP honors last season, is ranked 19th among qualifying passers despite not facing any team with a defensive passer rating in the top 10. KC’s is 23rd. KC’s Patrick Mahomes, meanwhile, is the second-rated passer and twice faced units that were in the top-seven in defensive passer rating. Buffalo’s unit ranks first and No. 1 defensively overall. Super speedy Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill had 186 yards, including three TDs, against the Eagles, the third most yards by anyone in a game this year. Yet it wasn’t his best game, since in Week 1 he had 197 against the Browns and their sixth-rated pass defense.
Bills Vs. Chiefs Odds
Analysis: The Bills’ defensive rankings are somewhat inflated considering they faced backup QBs the past two weeks in Washington’s Taylor Heinicke in Week 3 and Houston rookie Davis Mills last Sunday. And before that Miami backup, Jacoby Brissett played half the game after the injury to starter Tua Tagovailoa. That’s no way to warm up to face Mahomes. And if the Bills focus their energy on slowing the passing game, they’ll be testing a Chiefs’ rebuilt offensive line that helped generate 200 ground yards in Philly, with Clyde Edwards-Helaire having 102 on 14 carries. Carolina was in much the same situation last week, taking its over-hyped No. 1 defense built on soft opposition and going on the road to face one of the league’s top QBs (Dak Prescott). Dallas romped. Mahomes should knock the Bills’ unit down a peg or two this week. One more thing: KC coach Andy Reid is optimistic two-time Pro Bowl DE Frank Clark (2019, 2020) will return in a big way after missing the past two games.
Forecast: Chiefs 34, Bills 24
Last week: 8-8 ATS; 10-6 SU
Season totals: 38-25-1 (.603) ATS; 43-21 (.672) SU (revised)