Quarterback Aaron Rodgers makes his long-awaited regular season debut with the New York Jets on Monday night when they play host to AFC East Division rival Buffalo and QB Josh Allen at MetLife Stadium. The game closes out Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season.
The Jets are attempting to make the playoffs for the first time since 2010, which would end the longest current postseason drought in the four major US sports leagues.
Buffalo, meanwhile, will be striving to earn its fourth consecutive division title, which would tie a franchise high set from 1988-1991. They are the favorites to do so (+125 at Caesars Sportsbook). The Jets are next at +270 (DraftKings, BetRivers).
Check out our Bills vs. Jets odds, props, and predictions.
NFL Season Odds: Bills vs. Jets Spread, Moneyline, and Total
The Bills, who were 1-point favorites when odds were posted at Caesars in early June, are now a 2.5-point choice at most of the major sportsbooks, including DraftKings, FanDuel, PointsBet, BetMGM, and BetRivers.
This is the first time in six meetings with the Jets dating to 2020 that Buffalo isn’t listed as a double-digit pick. In their last matchup, in the Meadowlands last year, the Jets won 20-17 as a 10.5-point underdog. It was one of only three games in the 2022 season that a double-digit favorite was defeated.
The Over/Under for Monday’s game ranges from 44 to 45.5 points. And as of Friday morning, the Bills were available on the moneyline at -140 with the Jets at +126.
Last season, New York not only lost its final six games to finish 7-10 but also was 8-9 against the spread for its fifth-straight sub-.500 mark in that category. Over that span, NYJ has an ATS mark of 32-49-1.
Buffalo, meanwhile, has gone 30-22-4 ATS during its three-year reign in the division. Five times last season the Bills even gave a team its most lopsided defeat of the year, which tied for tops in the league.
When it comes to Over/Under results, the Jets went under in 12-of-17 games last season, tying for the most times in the league in that category. Buffalo went under in 11-of-19 total games, including both outings vs. New York.
Here are current odds from top US sports betting apps. It’s always recommended to shop around various sportsbooks to find the best prices for your bets and to take advantage of multiple sportsbook bonuses.
Bills vs. Jets Injury Report
The Jets have three key players who were limited in drills on Thursday and listed as questionable for Monday’s game. Surely alarming for Rodgers is that both his tackles are among the walking wounded.
Veteran OLT Duane Brown, who made the Pro Bowl with Seattle in 2021, continues to be slowed by a shoulder injury that cost him five games last year with New York.
Then there’s Mekhi Becton (knee) on the right side. A first-round draft pick in 2020, 11th overall, he had a strong rookie season but hasn’t played since injuring a knee in the 2021 opener.
The third hobbled Jet is second-year RB Breece Hall (knee), who starred early in his rookie year by averaging 5.8 yards on 80 carries before going down with a torn ACL in Week 7. The Jets were 5-2 when he played but nosedived to 2-8 without him. He’s apparently still not 100 percent healthy.
For Buffalo, safety Micah Hyde is the only one listed on the injury report. He missed the final 15 games last season with a neck injury. Now a back issue has popped up and he’s questionable.
And, of course, star linebacker Von Miller is on the PUP list with a knee injury and isn’t eligible to return to action until Week 5.
Bills vs. Jets Props
Here are some other interesting ways to bet on Monday night’s game:
First Touchdown Scorers (BetRivers)
Bills QB Josh Allen: +750
Bills RB James Cook: +800
Bills WR Stefon Diggs: +700
Bills WR Gabriel Davis: +1000
Jets RB Dalvin Cook: +750
Jets WR Garrett Wilson: +850
Jets RB Breece Hall: +800
Jets WR Allen Lazard: +1300
Passing Yards (FanDuel)
Jets QB Aaron Rodgers Over or Under 234.5: -114
Bills QB Josh Allen Over or Under 253.5: -114
Rushing Yards (FanDuel)
Jets RB Dalvin Cook Over or Under 41.5: -114
Bills QB Josh Allen Over or Under 35.5: -114
Bills RB James Cook Over or Under 44.5: -114
First Quarter Moneyline, Full-Time Moneyline (FanDuel)
Bills vs. Jets Stats, Analysis, and Prediction
Rodgers is following in the footsteps of another former Packers standout, QB Brett Favre, who left Green Bay after 16 seasons and started for the Jets in 2008. And it didn’t take him long to mesh with his new team, with a season-best passer rating of 125.9 in an opening victory at Miami.
It’s going to be hard for Rodgers to match that performance against a stout Bills defense especially if he’s working with hobbled tackles. In last year’s season opener with the Packers in Minnesota, Rodgers operated without his regular OLT and ORG and was sacked four times, matching a season-high in a 23-7 defeat.
But the Jets did add some star power in the receiving corps in ex-Packer Allen Lazard and former Kansas City speedster Mecole Hardman joining last year’s Offensive Rookie of the Year, Garrett Wilson.
But it’s not like the Bills don’t have warts, too.
Allen led the league with 10 interceptions thrown in enemy territory last year, five of which were inside the 20. He also tied for the league-high with 16 fumbles.
Plus, last year at MetLife in that upset loss to the Jets, Allen had his worst day of the season (based on passer rating, 46.8). But that was to be somewhat expected since the Jets’ No. 3-ranked pass defense was the best he faced all season, led by Defensive Rookie of the Year Sauce Gardner. Actually, the best unit he faced was the Bills’ No. 2-ranked unit during practice.
Also, the Bills have one of the league’s top front sevens in stopping the run, which could be trouble for a Jets team without its top RB at full speed. But recent addition Dalvin Cook, a 1,000-yard rusher his past four seasons in Minnesota, gives New York another option. But, he’s just recently returned to practice after undergoing shoulder rehab work.
And, of course, there’s the face of the Bills’ receiving corp led by WR Stefon Diggs, who had 11 scoring receptions and 1,429 yards last year. And in the running game, Dalvin Cook’s brother, James Cook, is more than capable of carrying the load for the ground game.
In summary, it seems the Jets’ issues along the offensive line will be their downfall on Monday. And it’s not like Rodgers is Superman. He had 12 INTs last year and was only the league’s 17th-rated passer.
Provided Allen takes better care of the ball…
Prediction: Bills and Under
How to Watch Bills vs. Jets
Date: Monday, Sept. 11, 2023
Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. EDT
Location: MetLife Stadium — East Rutherford, NJ
Where to Watch: ABC, ESPN, ESPN+